Flagship · Weekly Brief

Macro rationale

NEUTRAL is unchanged and well-corroborated. Stress signals are absent: VIX 18.58 (-0.58% vs 200d) and HY OAS 2.77 below its 90d SMA — no escalator fires, so the §5.4 band stays 5-15% with 15% the hard ceiling and the enforced working reserve. But the late-cycle framing is intact and getting more crowded: NAAIM 95.64 near-maximum manager positioning, forward ERP ~+0.4% (forward P/E 20.3x vs 4.55% 10Y), HY at the ~18th percentile, and QQQ sitting just shy of the +8% extension threshold. Growth is decelerating (June payrolls +57K with -74K revisions, participation 61.5%, GDPNow 1.7%) against a hawkish-hold Fed (median 2026 dot 3.8%, 9 of 18 lean hike, core PCE 3.4%) — the 2s10s at +0.37 un-inverted completes the late-cycle picture. Two dated risk events sit inside the window: the July 28-29 FOMC (haiku flagged July-hike odds jumping 10.7% → 34.7% in a week, a direct financing-cost threat to the datacenter capex line) and the July 31 100% patented-pharma tariff. The Houthi VLCC diversion out of Suez is a live crude/LNG bid lifting the energy tilt to +4 and re-validating the physical-layer hedge slots (NEM, SCCO, CCJ). On the private-money side nothing broke: Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B (from $175-185B) this week, TSMC's 10% 2027 price hikes and the memory-price forecast confirm the compute bottleneck, and defense is fully appropriated (P.L. 119-75, $839.2B) with FY2027 CR risk not a present condition. So: funders intact, risk premia near zero, two event-risk dates in two trading days. That is a hold-the-book, sit-at-the-band-top posture — not a de-risk, not a lean-in. Cash goes to the 15% enforced working reserve.

Thesis

Operator-transition audit outcome: the §3a foundation and §3b opportunistic sleeves stay at 0% this run — not by choice but by mechanics. stale_policy=YES blocks every open and add, and the book is pinned at exactly the 18-position schema floor, so there is no displacement path either. Sleeve build is deferred to the first non-stale deep run, funded from the 15% reserve rather than by closing a thesis name. Re-derivation under the amended policy produced the same book. Every funder is intact or strengthening: Alphabet lifted 2026 capex to $195-205B (AVGO/MU/TSM/ANET), TSMC's 10% 2027 price hikes and the $100B Arizona buildout confirm the foundry leg, copper sits at record highs against a ~320k-tonne 2026 deficit, term U3O8 is $94-95.50/lb, and defense is appropriated through FY2026. No §6.5 flow break, no durability break, no cap breach. One discretionary ticket. KTOS is the book's largest name at 11.11% purely through drift from a 7.00% deliberate entry — never a conviction sizing. Score 62 sits near the floor, FCF is negative through the drone ramp, and the position briefing explicitly says the entry trigger (revenue scale + margin firming) is unconfirmed and "the weight drift alone warrants sizing discipline." I trim -2.30pp to 8.81% and bank the proceeds to rebuild cash to the 15% enforced working reserve ahead of the July 29 FOMC. This is sizing discipline plus reserve rebuild, not a thesis exit — MACH-TB 2.0 and the Pentagon drone-dominance program are intact and KTOS

Reflection

No flow break anywhere: Alphabet capex $195-205B, TSMC 2027 price hikes, copper ATH, U3O8 $94+. Crowding and event risk, not deterioration — sit at the 15% band top into FOMC.

The transition audit made the structural trap explicit rather than fixing it: I was asked to re-derive under the amended barbell, and the honest answer is that under stale_policy plus an exactly-18 book I have zero degrees of freedom — no foundation sleeve, no LMT/VEEV/DRS displacement, and three names I have judged broken (MP 44, PSN 59, LUNR 54) carried on a position-count technicality for the sixth straight run. That is now the single largest known defect in the book and it is mechanical, not analytical. Separately: KTOS at 11.11% was never a decision, it was drift — I should check drift-to

Positions (18)

• MUMicron Technologycompute

  hold3.86%88
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Durable US HBM3E/HBM4 memory franchise in a capacity-disciplined cycle — 84.6% GM, FCF positive, the only US-domiciled leading-edge DRAM maker, run with genuine supply discipline after two decades of boom-bust. Named flow: 16 Strategic Customer Agreements (~$100B contracted through 2030), Anthropic multi-year supply deal, and Alphabet's raised 2026 capex guide to $195-205B feeding HBM demand; scor

  Unwind

  DRAM/NAND spot-price collapse or HBM oversupply breaking the shortage thesis; hyperscaler capex cut; erosion of the 16-SCA contract book.

  Catalyst

  FQ4 earnings — HBM4 qualification progress and FY2027 supply commitments against the ~84% projected revenue growth.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $500.00 base

  $650.00 bull — HBM4 sells out through 2027 at rising ASPs; SCA book converts and memory stays structurally short into 2029.

  $300.00 bear — Hyperscalers pause the capex ramp on financing costs; conventional DRAM oversupplies and drags blended pricing down.

• TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingcompute

  hold5.83%86
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  World-leading foundry with an effective monopoly at <=3nm — every meaningful AI accelerator routes through TSMC. >50% GM, prodigious FCF, famously disciplined capex, 73% foundry share. Named flow: the $100B Arizona buildout de-risks the geopolitical tail, 10% 2027 price hikes confirm pricing power, CoWoS advanced packaging to 120-140k wpm by end-2026, and the ~$725B 2026 hyperscaler capex line rou

  Unwind

  Gross margin sustained <50% for two consecutive quarters; a rival closing the leading-edge yield gap; a Taiwan-strait event that Arizona capacity cannot offset.

  Catalyst

  Monthly revenue prints and the next capex guide; N2 ramp commentary on AI demand visibility through 2029-2030.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $340.00 base

  $420.00 bull — N2/A16 ramp plus 2027 price hikes lift blended ASPs while Arizona removes the geopolitical discount.

  $220.00 bear — 2027 AI capex decelerates on the capex-to-revenue gap; leading-edge utilization slips and the multiple compresses.

• NVDANVIDIAcompute

  hold3.61%74
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  AI-accelerator franchise with the CUDA software moat — ~74.9% GM, fortress balance sheet, and a developer lock-in no ASIC competitor has replicated. Named flow: ~$725B 2026 hyperscaler capex on Blackwell/Rubin (MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META) plus the Stargate $500B JV. Score has slipped 14 to 74 on AMD landing training/inference deals at OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic — the ASIC/competitor share creep is the t

  Unwind

  Data-center revenue YoY <20% for two consecutive quarters; hyperscaler in-sourcing materially displacing GPU share toward the 25% TAM invalidation line.

  Catalyst

  Q2 datacenter revenue print and Rubin ramp commentary; July 29 FOMC — higher financing costs pressure the datacenter buildout.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $225.00 base

  $290.00 bull — Rubin ramps into an undiminished capex cycle and inference share holds above 70%, re-accelerating datacenter revenue.

  $140.00 bear — AMD plus hyperscaler ASICs take visible share while a 2027 capex deceleration compresses both growth and multiple.

• ASMLASML Holdingcompute

  hold2.96%61
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  EUV / High-NA monopoly — the single most irreplaceable tool in advanced semis, with no commercial-scale alternative at 2nm and a multi-year backlog, ~50% GM. Named flow: Norway GPFG holds, Coatue and Third Point added in Q1; the TSMC/Samsung/Intel 2025-27 EUV orderbook plus TSMC's 30% 2027 capacity increase backstops cash flow. Score fell 24 to 61 on valuation after an ~87% H1 run — the franchise

  Unwind

  Book-to-bill <0.7 for three consecutive quarters; a Dutch/US export-control tightening that removes a material share of the orderbook; forward P/E stretching past ~45x on decelerating bookings.

  Catalyst

  Next quarterly bookings print — the confirming datapoint for 2027 High-NA orders.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,550.00 base

  $1,900.00 bull — High-NA orders convert on schedule and 2027 bookings reaccelerate on the foundry capacity expansion.

  $950.00 bear — Bookings decelerate into a capex digestion year and the post-87%-run multiple compresses hard.

• AVGOBroadcomcompute

  hold2.92%63
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Custom-silicon ASIC leader (~70% share) plus the VMware infrastructure-software moat — huge FCF, $7B+ annual buyback, serial dividend grower, and a management team with one of the best capital-allocation records in semis. Named flow this week: Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B (from $175-185B), directly feeding TPU volume; Meta MTIA at 1+GW and Anthropic ASIC contracts; AI segment +

  Unwind

  AI custom-chip revenue stalls below a $25B annual run-rate; full hyperscaler in-sourcing displaces the ASIC design franchise; VMware renewal churn breaks the software leg.

  Catalyst

  Q2 earnings — custom-chip bookings against Alphabet's raised capex guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $420.00 base

  $520.00 bull — TPU and MTIA volumes step up on the raised Alphabet/Meta capex; ASIC backlog converts above the $30B bookings mark.

  $260.00 bear — Hyperscalers in-source design, ASIC growth stalls near $25B and the VMware price increases drive visible churn.

• ANETArista Networkscompute

  hold2.60%67
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Arista — durable hyperscaler-networking franchise and consistent share-gainer since 2004; ~61.9% GM, net cash, no debt, and the single-image EOS software moat that keeps switching costs high. Jayshree Ullal's capital discipline is a genuine differentiator. Named flow: Microsoft and Meta named as largest customers funding 29-35% YoY growth, guidance raised two consecutive quarters, AI-driven sales

  Unwind

  Microsoft+Meta combined concentration >50% with revenue decelerating; Spectrum-X or whitebox displacing EOS in a named hyperscaler footprint; gross margin breaking below ~60%.

  Catalyst

  Next quarterly print — AI-cluster revenue share and 2027 guidance.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $200.00 base

  $240.00 bull — Ethernet keeps taking AI-fabric share from InfiniBand; AI revenue clears 50% of the mix with margins above 46%.

  $130.00 bear — NVIDIA Spectrum-X wins a flagship hyperscaler footprint and the Microsoft/Meta concentration turns into a decel.

• CCJCamecoenergy

  hold7.05%67
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tail-risk hedge slot (§5.3): tier-1 Saskatchewan uranium franchise (McArthur River/Cigar Lake) plus the 49% Westinghouse JV with Brookfield — irreplaceable, permitted, low-cost tonnes in a stable jurisdiction. Named flow: term U3O8 at $94-95.50/lb vs a $60+/lb legacy contract book that is repricing upward; Kazatomprom's 8Mlb output cut sustains a structural deficit; the Trump EO targeting 400GW US

  Unwind

  Uranium spot/term price collapse; contract-book erosion or failure to reprice legacy contracts upward; a reactor-build program cancellation. Score drift alone is not a trim trigger.

  Catalyst

  Quarterly contracting-volume disclosure and the next UxC/TradeTech term-price print.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $90.00 base

  $115.00 bull — Term price pushes past $100/lb as utilities re-contract; Westinghouse AP1000 orders convert on the 400GW program.

  $55.00 bear — Term uranium rolls over and the nuclear equity complex keeps lagging XLE; contracting volumes disappoint.

• GEVGE Vernovaenergy

  hold4.92%61
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Gas-turbine and grid franchise with genuine pricing power — ~$163B backlog (3.5+ years of sales), turbines sold out through 2030, 10-20% price realization on new orders, quadrupled FCF. A three-player global oligopoly in heavy-duty turbines; the electrification bottleneck cannot be routed around. Named flow: Norway GPFG added post-spin; Oracle/Alphabet datacenter capex pull-through; gas orders +88

  Unwind

  Gas-turbine backlog cancellation or a hyperscaler power-capex cut; wind losses widening enough to consume gas-segment profit; EV/EBITDA breaching the ~25x exit ceiling.

  Catalyst

  Next order-book disclosure — gas-turbine backlog growth against the wind drag.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $720.00 base

  $900.00 bull — Gas orders keep compounding at +88% on datacenter PPAs while wind is ring-fenced or divested, re-rating the mix.

  $450.00 bear — Wind losses widen further and a hyperscaler power-capex pause stalls the turbine order book.

• SCCOSouthern Copperenergy

  hold8.01%68
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tail-risk hedge slot (§5.3): lowest-cost major copper producer with the industry's largest reserve base, 59.8% GM, FCF positive, and a large dividend — Grupo Mexico ownership means capital discipline and no empire-building. Named flow: ~320k-tonne 2026 copper supply deficit with prices at record highs above $6.50/lb, BHP's first-half results showing copper overtaking iron ore for the first time, A

  Unwind

  Copper price collapse breaking the deficit thesis; Tia Maria / Los Chancas permitting reversal; a dividend cut signalling balance-sheet stress.

  Catalyst

  Tia Maria / Los Chancas permitting progress — the key un-priced upside catalyst.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $155.00 base

  $185.00 bull — The 320k-tonne deficit widens on grid and datacenter demand; Tia Maria permits clear and adds volume growth.

  $100.00 bear — A China-led industrial slowdown breaks the deficit and copper round-trips; Peruvian permitting stalls again.

• MPMP Materialsenergy

  hold3.35%44
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  Only scaled US rare-earth mine plus magnet producer — Mountain Pass is a genuinely irreplaceable asset against China's ~98% magnet control. Named flow is a government-backstopped moat: DoD $400M Series A preferred, $150M loan, a 10-year $110/kg NdPr price floor and a 10-year magnet offtake for the 10X facility, plus the Apple long-term contract. Honest assessment: this is the weakest name in the b

  Unwind

  FCF stays negative through the magnet ramp; the China blacklist chokes processing-technology access materially; 10X construction slips; the DoD price floor or offtake is withdrawn. Any of these closes it at the next non-stale run.

  Catalyst

  10X Texas magnet-facility construction milestone and the first NdPr floor-price settlement disclosure.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $60.00 base

  $85.00 bull — 10X magnet line commissions on schedule, TTM FCF turns positive and the DoD floor plus Apple offtake reprice the asset.

  $28.00 bear — China blacklist blocks processing-technology access, 10X slips and cash burn continues with no FCF inflection.

• NEMNewmont Corporationenergy

  hold7.52%85
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tail-risk equity hedge (§5.3): largest gold producer with tier-1 long-life assets, strong post-Newcrest FCF and dividend, and visibly improving cost discipline after the divestiture program. Named flow: sustained central-bank gold accumulation as reserve diversification, TD Cowen upgrade to buy on July 14 ($127 PT, +5.4% that day), and score recovered 83 → 88, the highest in the energy pillar. Thi

  Unwind

  Cost overruns or mine disappointments breaking FCF and the dividend; durable disinflation plus a real-rate surge removing the stagflation-hedge rationale; a peer-relative multiple stretch.

  Catalyst

  Quarterly AISC print and the July 29 FOMC — a hawkish hold with sticky core PCE is directly supportive.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $125.00 base

  $155.00 bull — Central-bank buying persists while the Fed stays frozen against 3.4% core PCE; AISC keeps falling and FCF re-rates.

  $80.00 bear — Real rates surge on a hawkish repricing, gold rolls over, and cost overruns at legacy Newcrest mines squeeze FCF.

• KTOSKratos Defensedefense

  hold11.03%62
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tactical drones (XQ-58A Valkyrie), hypersonics and turbine engines. Named flow intact: DoD MACH-TB 2.0 IDIQ prime ($1.45B ceiling, 5-yr), Project Helios $68.3M hypersonic-materials single award, USMC Valkyrie mods, the Pentagon's Unleash American Drone Dominance program (22K+ units, $1.1B), UK £5B drone commitment, and ARK accumulation on June 30. Why the trim: 11.11% was pure drift from a deliber

  Unwind

  Backlog or contract cancellations; margin failing to inflect through the drone ramp; a DoD unmanned-systems funding cut, or FY2027 appropriations slipping past October 1 into a CR that blocks new starts and production-rate increases.

  Catalyst

  Next earnings — margin inflection on the drone ramp and backlog funding percentage; FY2027 appropriations progress before October 1.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $75.00 base

  $100.00 bull — Drone-dominance volume converts the $2B+ backlog at scale and margins finally inflect on 20%+ revenue growth.

  $40.00 bear — An FY2027 CR blocks new starts, the drone ramp keeps consuming cash and margins stay flat with FCF negative.

• HEIHEICOdefense

  hold10.23%68
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Defense/aero aftermarket compounder and a textbook 20-30 year franchise — the Mendelson family has owned and run it since 1957, compounding FCF at 20%+ with a disciplined serial-acquisition model ($1B+/yr of bolt-ons at sensible prices). FAA-PMA parts and MRO are structurally insulated from budget volatility. Named flow: record Q2 net income +49% YoY on record sales of $1.375B, FSG $929M vs $864M

  Unwind

  Organic growth decelerating below 6% with margin compression; forward P/E sustained above 50x WITH growth deceleration confirmed (valuation alone is not the trigger); a value-destroying large acquisition breaking the capital-allocation record.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings — organic growth rate and ETG margin, the test of whether 54x is earned.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $410.00 base

  $480.00 bull — Organic growth stays double-digit and the bolt-on machine keeps compounding ETG margins; commercial MRO cycle extends.

  $280.00 bear — Organic growth decelerates below 6% and the ~54x multiple de-rates hard toward the historical mean.

• PSNParsons Corporationdefense

  hold3.56%59
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  Parsons — C5ISR/cyber government-services prime with a sticky multi-year IDIQ backlog: MDA SHIELD ($151B ceiling), DTRA cyber $137M, USAF MATOC $15B, Navy WEXMAC $10B, a $500M Cyber Hunt Kit and a $125M Army AI/ML task order. Honest assessment: this is the book's other broken name — score 59 below the 60 floor, the Q4 miss took revenue -8% YoY on a softened confidential contract (stock -14.4%), an

  Unwind

  Book-to-bill below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters; confidential-contract revenue softness persisting and blocking backlog conversion. Close at the first non-stale run that permits a replacement open.

  Catalyst

  Next quarterly print — book-to-bill and whether SHIELD/C5ISR task orders finally convert.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $85.00 base

  $105.00 bull — SHIELD and MATOC task orders start converting, book-to-bill recovers above 1.0 and the confidential contract laps.

  $55.00 bear — Confidential-contract softness persists, book-to-bill stays sub-1.0 and defense-services multiples compress on CR risk.

• LLYEli Lillybiology

  hold6.09%73
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Premier pharma compounder — the Mounjaro/Zepbound GLP-1 franchise (~60% US share) plus oral orforglipron (Foundayo, FDA-approved) and retatrutide in Phase 3 (~70lb loss), on 82.9% gross margin with strong FCF and a 145-year record of research reinvestment. Named flow: the $27B US manufacturing expansion, which also positions it favorably under the July 31 Section 232 pharma tariff (100% on importe

  Unwind

  Tirzepatide US script share falling >5pts to Novo over two quarters; retatrutide Phase 3 disappointing; IRA/MFP negotiation reaching the GLP-1 franchise in the IPAY 2027-2028 cycles.

  Catalyst

  July 31 pharma-tariff effective date; retatrutide Phase 3 readout and oral orforglipron launch metrics.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,200.00 base

  $1,450.00 bull — Orforglipron scales the oral market and retatrutide reads out strongly; the $27B domestic build turns the tariff into a moat.

  $780.00 bear — Novo's oral franchise takes share, retatrutide disappoints, and IRA negotiation reaches the incretin class earlier than expected.

• VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticalsbiology

  hold4.07%81
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Durable biology compounder: the cystic-fibrosis monopoly (Trikafta/Alyftrek) is a self-funding cash engine with 86.8% GM, no meaningful competition, and a fortress net-cash balance sheet — Vertex has never needed capital markets to fund its pipeline. Named flow: the $10B Crinetics acquisition (July 13) diversifies into endocrine disease with up to ~$5B of annual revenue potential and Palsonify app

  Unwind

  The CF franchise eroding faster than non-CF revenue can replace it; the Crinetics integration destroying value or pushing forward P/E toward the 30x invalidation line; a pipeline setback in the pain or endocrine programs.

  Catalyst

  Crinetics deal close and Palsonify launch metrics; next Journavx script-trend disclosure.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $540.00 base

  $640.00 bull — Crinetics adds a genuine second franchise, Journavx scales in non-opioid pain and Casgevy reimbursement broadens.

  $380.00 bear — Crinetics dilutes FCF without near-term revenue, Journavx uptake disappoints and CF growth flattens.

• ARGXargenxbiology

  hold3.79%69
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  argenx — the Vyvgart/Vyvgart Hytrulo (efgartigimod) FcRn autoimmune franchise: a first-mover platform with a decade of indication runway, self-funded, commercial-stage, high-margin and net cash. Named flow: the FDA expanded gMG approval to all serotypes including seronegative (~18% TAM expansion), Sanofi's riliprubart Phase 3 CIDP failure removed the most credible near-term competitor, and the Jun

  Unwind

  Vyvgart revenue growth stalling; a pipeline indication failure in myositis or Sjogren's; a competitor FcRn entrant taking measurable share.

  Catalyst

  Myositis data readout and the next Vyvgart quarterly revenue print across indications.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $850.00 base

  $1,000.00 bull — Label expansion compounds across CIDP, myositis and Sjogren's with no credible FcRn competitor; revenue tracks to the $16B 2036 path.

  $550.00 bear — Vyvgart growth plateaus in gMG, a pipeline indication fails, and a rival FcRn entrant reprices the franchise.

• LUNRcompute

  hold1.26%54
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Intuitive Machines — named government backlog is the whole thesis: NASA Near Space Network IDIQ ($4.82B ceiling, active), a $148.3M firm-fixed-price CLPS task order that broke the July 6 short thesis by providing a non-dilutive revenue floor, US Space Force Andromeda IDIQ ($6.2B ceiling), $428.9M of Q1 2026 SDA+NASA awards, and $1.1B of contracted backlog against ~$1B 2026 revenue guidance. Honest

  Unwind

  Backlog conversion stalling; the profitability pathway breaking; a NASA CLPS or SDA program funding cut; further insider selling. Resolve at the first non-stale run that permits a replacement open.

  Catalyst

  Next CLPS mission execution and the Q2 backlog-conversion print against $1B FY2026 guidance.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $14.00 base

  $22.00 bull — Backlog converts on schedule, the profitability pathway is confirmed and space-sector rotation off the SpaceX IPO premium lifts peers.

  $5.00 bear — Mission slippage stalls backlog conversion, cash burn forces dilution and the 28.85% short base presses.

Warnings

• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: MU
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: TSM
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: NVDA
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: ASML
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: AVGO
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: ANET
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: CCJ
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: GEV
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: LUNR
• hedge_floor: only 2/3 tail-risk names held (floor escalated: AI-load 35% > 30%) — open a gold/oil/diversified-commodity hedge (§5.3); uranium & power-gen do not count
• ledger stale (flagship_performance.json missing) — rebalance diffed against intent

Conviction-lock actions

No conviction-lock refusals or overrides this run.

Cost breakdown

Per-call cost computed from cost.js pricing constants (Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5). Cache-read tokens billed at 10% of input. See Cost & ROI for the rolling 30-day ledger.