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COST & ROI

Cost & ROI

Every Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku call this AI fund makes is logged here with its dollar cost. Every decision is scored at 7, 30, and 90 days against SPY. The ledger is the product.

30-day spend

$49.71

197 runs · soft ceiling $175

Ceiling utilization

28%

Inside policy

Mean alpha vs SPY (30d)

-3.29%

Hit-rate 3%

Cost per run avg

$0.252

13.2M tokens 30d

Per-cadence spend (30d)

Each run carries its own soft/hard budget from cost.js. Soft = log-warn, hard = abort.

Investment Committee7 runs
$17.27
$2.467/run · cap $3.00/$5.00
Bulletin3 runs
$7.17
$2.389/run · cap $2.50/$4.00
Regime call17 runs
$6.97
Quarterly Audit1 run
$4.13
$4.132/run · cap $10.00/$20.00
Watch44 runs
$3.77
$0.086/run · cap $0.50/$1.00
Research Desk4 runs
$3.63
$0.908/run · cap $2.00/$3.50
catalyst_read6 runs
$2.08
shock_watch16 runs
$1.23
Daily Pulse16 runs
$1.11
Policy Scout30 runs
$0.88
re_underwrite4 runs
$0.56
Shock cause read3 runs
$0.32
size_rationale25 runs
$0.32
Autopilot gate10 runs
$0.19
monthly_attribution1 run
$0.08
challenger_watch3 runs
$0
swap_scorecard3 runs
$0
swap_decisions4 runs
$0

Model mix (30d)

Where the dollars go. Cache-read tokens dominate on doctrine-cached runs, suppressing Opus input cost.

  • Opus
    $13.54 · 27%
  • Fable
    $12.94 · 26%
  • Haiku
    $11.68 · 23%
  • Sonnet
    $8.83 · 18%
  • Unknown
    $1.31 · 3%
  • Claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
    $1.04 · 2%
  • Claude-sonnet-5
    $0.38 · 1%

Cost timeline (90d)

Daily spend (bars) + cumulative (line). The horizontal reference line is the 30-day soft ceiling.

Outcome scorecard

Every agent decision is scored at 7, 30, and 90 days against SPY total return. Hit-rate is % of decisions with alpha > 0.

7-day

-0.32%

225 decisions · 39% hit-rate

30-day

-3.29%

146 decisions · 3% hit-rate

90-day

—

No decisions scored

By decision kind7d alpha · hit30d alpha · hitn
  • Haiku scan-0.41% · 39%-3.23% · 2%194
  • Regime call-0.56% · 32%-3.54% · 4%54
  • Event-driven-0.80% · 41%-3.51% · 6%33
  • Daily note-0.13% · 47%-3.09% · 0%31
  • strategy_amendment_noted-0.49% · 27%-2.31% · 0%16
  • Investment committee+0.59% · 50%-3.38% · 0%5
  • Quarterly audit-1.21% · 0%-3.99% · 0%5
  • conviction_calibration-0.92% · 0%-2.81% · 0%4
  • monthly_attribution-1.15% · 50%-1.82% · 0%4
  • strategy_amendment_audit-0.80% · 0%-3.99% · 0%4
  • reclassification+1.01% · 50%-4.83% · 0%3
  • Exit (after the sale)—+8.33% · 67%3
  • shock_watch+2.33% · 100%—3
  • quarterly_letter-2.38% · 0%-1.65% · 0%2
  • re_underwrite+0.80% · 50%—2
  • catalyst_read+0.80% · 50%—2
  • challenger_watch+0.80% · 50%—2
  • swap_scorecard+0.80% · 50%—2
  • beta_report+0.80% · 50%—2
  • score_formula_promoted+2.34% · 100%—1
  • swap_decisions+2.34% · 100%—1
  • beta_cure+2.34% · 100%—1
DecisionHorizonReturnSPYAlpha
  • Oct 26 · 2026-10-26-s7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · 2026-10-26-h7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · 2026-10-26-i7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · swap_decisio7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · beta_cure-207d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · regime-2026-7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · 2026-10-26-h7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 26 · 2026-10-26-s7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · 2026-10-25-b7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · swap_scoreca7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · challenger_w7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · catalyst_rea7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · re_underwrit7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · 2026-10-25-s7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · 2026-10-25-s7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 25 · 2026-10-25-m7d+0.61%-1.73%+2.34%
  • Oct 23 · 2026-10-23-s7d+1.44%-0.88%+2.32%
  • Oct 23 · 2026-10-23-h7d+1.44%-0.88%+2.32%
  • Oct 23 · 2026-10-23-s7d+1.44%-0.88%+2.32%
  • Oct 23 · 2026-10-23-h7d+1.44%-0.88%+2.32%

Budgets & ceilings

Per-run caps (soft / hard / abort) and the rolling 30-day + 7-day ceilings from the strategy document.

WindowActualCeilingStatus
30-day soft$49.71$175.0028%
30-day hard$49.71$325.0015%
7-day hard$24.05$65.0037%
CadenceSoft / runHard / run30d runs30d total
Sunday Brief$2.00$3.500$0
Quarterly Audit$10.00$20.001$4.13
Research Desk$2.00$3.504$3.63
Watch$0.50$1.0044$3.77
Investment Committee$3.00$5.007$17.27
Bulletin$2.50$4.003$7.17
crash_defense$6.00$10.000$0

Cost transparency is the discipline forcing function. Soft and hard ceilings are codified in the strategy document; per-cadence caps are hardcoded in the cost module. Changes require a commit and a strategy edit.

Outcome attribution methodology is documented in the strategy document: SPY benchmark over the same window, regime calls marked to NAV, single-name picks marked to ticker, hit-rate = % of decisions with alpha > 0 at 30 days.