Flagship Portfolio
Conviction-weighted allocation under STRATEGY §2 caps. Held while the flow keeps flowing; exited when the flow shifts, not when the price moves.
Mission
Own what capital, resources, and policy are flowing into.
The race to build out the next century — compute, energy, defense, biology — is being financed in plain sight. The Flagship reads those flows and owns the businesses receiving the funding. 18–20 names, conviction-weighted.
Hawkish hold + Taiwan escalation confirm NEUTRAL; cash near band top at 14%
9d brief wants NEUTRAL/15% ceiling; FOMC event-risk now cleared (hawkish hold confirmed), Taiwan Strait escalation new risk — land at 14%, one tick below ceiling, calmer live tape prevents pinning it
Signals are genuinely mid-range: VIX -2.3% vs 200d, HY OAS only +2bp above SMA, and extension firmly inactive (QQQ +3.88%, wRSI 49.79) — but the hawkish Warsh hold and China's Taiwan coastguard expansion add defensive weight squarely consistent with the brief's NEUTRAL/defensive-tilt framing (NAAIM ~96, forward ERP ~0.4%, HY near 18th historical pctile). Cash at 14% — near NEUTRAL ceiling with no active escalator so the base band top binds; hedges at baseline as geopolitical tail is real but VIX below 200d and HY not blowing out preclude max. Compute carries only a +2 tilt (AI-load 43.2% > 35% cap triggers mechanical trims); energy and biology are the conviction overweights.
floor 15%
Pillar Exposure
| Expand | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Micron Technologymemory-dram HBM3E ramp + DRAM cycle turn; cyclically sensitive but levered to AI-memory demand. | -3.69% | 3.24%target 3.86% | ||
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingfoundry World-leading foundry with effective monopoly at <=3nm. | -3.24% | +1.27pp 7.10%target 5.83% | ||
NVIDIAdesign AI accelerator monopoly with CUDA software moat. | -2.02% | 3.29%target 3.61% | ||
ASML Holdingequipment EUV and High-NA monopoly. | -1.40% | 2.47%target 2.96% | ||
Broadcomdesign Custom silicon for hyperscalers + networking + VMware moat. | -0.86% | 2.81%target 2.92% | ||
Arista Networksnetworking AI-cluster Ethernet leadership. | -3.68% | 2.39%target 2.60% | ||
CCJ | Camecouranium Western uranium mine-to-fuel champion. | -2.33% | -1.13pp 5.92%target 7.05% | |
GE Vernovapower-gen-grid Gas turbines + grid + nuclear-services trifecta. | -2.67% | 4.00%target 4.92% | ||
Southern Coppercopper Long-life Mexico/Peru copper mines with industry-leading margins. | -2.37% | -2.19pp 5.82%target 8.01% | ||
Newmont Corporationgold miner tail hedge Largest gold producer — tier-1 long-life assets, strong post-Newcrest FCF and dividend, improving cost disc… | -1.84% | -2.94pp 4.58%target 7.52% | ||
Kratos Defensedrones-tactical Tactical drones (Valkyrie, Mako) + space + microwave electronics. | -5.74% | -3.13pp 7.90%target 11.03% | ||
HEICOaero-components Aftermarket aero parts + defense electronics. | -2.42% | +1.15pp 11.38%target 10.23% | ||
Eli Lillyglp1-metabolic GLP-1 leader (Mounjaro/Zepbound) + Alzheimer's + oncology. | +0.23% | -1.05pp 5.04%target 6.09% | ||
Vertex Pharmaceuticalsgene-editing-cf CF franchise + Casgevy gene therapy + non-opioid pain. | -0.35% | 3.23%target 4.07% | ||
argenxautoimmune Vyvgart (efgartigimod) franchise expanding across autoimmune indications. | +1.28% | +1.05pp 4.84%target 3.79% | ||
LUNR | Intuitive Machines, Inc. Class A Common Stock Intuitive Machines — NASA Near Space Network IDIQ $4.82B ceiling (active); CLPS $180.4M firm task order (Ma… | -3.60% | 0.92%target 1.26% | |
| CASH · SGOV | SGOV sleeve · regime-driven (§5.4) | — | 25.06%target 14.25% |
Recent Decisions (5)
The agent's most recent runs — full log at /journal.- Jul 29, 10:30 AM ETBulletinNEUTRAL
Regime NEUTRAL, cash 14.00%, 17 positions, 1 ticket emitted. Live signals remain genuinely mid-range and unchanged from the 07-27 deep run: VIX 18.21 (-2.3% vs 200d SMA), HY OAS only +2bp above its SMA and still near the 18th historical percentile, 2s10s +0.36 (positive slope, below the 12m 0.54 average), extension inactive (QQQ +3.88%, wRSI 49.8). No cash escalator is live, so the NEUTRAL base band 5-15% binds with 15% as the hard ceiling and 14% as the enforced working reserve. Defensive weight comes from policy, not price: Warsh's hawkish hold at 3.50-3.75% with 9 of 18 dots leaning hike, core PCE 3.4%, forward ERP ~0.4%, NAAIM ~96 — near-max positioning into the July 29 FOMC — plus China's coastguard patrol expansion east of Taiwan. Against that, every named private-capital funder in the book is intact or strengthening: Alphabet's 2026 capex line lifted to $195-205B inside the ~$725B hyperscaler aggregate (MU/TSM/NVDA/AVGO/ANET), TSMC's announced 10% 2027 price hikes and $100B Arizona expansion, copper at all-time highs against a ~320k-tonne 2026 deficit (SCCO), term U3O8 $94-95.50/lb plus the 400GW nuclear target (CCJ), GEV's record $176B backlog with orders +88%, and FY2026 defense appropriated at $839.2B (P.L. 119-75). That is a late-cycle NEUTRAL with a defensive tilt — crowding and event risk rather than deterioration. This run's ad-hoc trigger is a single-name price shock (PSN -39.35% on 3.5× 20d ADV), which is idiosyncratic to a government-services prime whose book-to-bill and SHIELD task-order conversion were already failing, not a macro regime signal. Live book cash of 23.75% sits above the enforced ceiling and would be mechanically clipped; I bring intent cash to 13.93%, at the 14% working reserve, funded by the PSN close and the KTOS drift right-size rather than by force-selling intact compounders. Scope-locked event-driven patch: only PSN, KTOS, HEI may move; every other name is re-affirmed verbatim at its prior entry weight, delta 0. Two tickets. (1) PSN closes. The -39.35% single-day move on 3.5× 20d ADV is the market resolving a thesis I have journaled as broken for six consecutive runs: score 59, Q4 revenue -8% YoY, book-to-bill under 1.0, and the entry trigger — MDA SHIELD task-order conversion — never accelerated. The recent Qatar and Blatnik Bridge awards are civil infrastructure that dilutes rather than confirms the C5ISR/cyber thesis. This is a durability break plus a flow break, not a drawdown, so the LTCG-deferral tilt does not apply. (2) KTOS right-sized -3.03pp to 8.00%. Its 11.03% entry weight was never a conviction sizing — it arose from adds and drift off a deliberate 7.00% entry, and I journaled the intended trim last run. Score 62 near the floor, FCF still negative through the drone ramp, and the entry trigger (revenue scale + margin firming) remains unconfirmed. MACH-TB 2.0, Project Helios and the Pentagon drone-dominance program are intact — this is sizing discipline on drift, not a thesis exit, and the target now sits at live weight. HEI held unchanged at 10.23%: record Q2 net income +49%, ETG operating income +56%, inside the 12% cap; the 54x forward multiple is a watch item, not the confirmed growth-deceleration-plus-multiple invalidation. Mid-cap sleeve: LMT, DRS, VEEV and ORCL all screen, but scope lock plus stale_policy forbid opens — deferred Flow read — Idiosyncratic government-services break (PSN -39% on 3.5x ADV), not a macro turn: hyperscaler capex, copper ATH, U3O8 $94+ and $839B FY2026 defense all unchanged. Guardrails: 3 enforcement(s) — book under the §5.3 hedge floor — flagged for next deep.
- Jul 29, 9:35 AM ETWatchNEUTRAL
Watch: 0 high · 2 med flags across 18 names. Regime NEUTRAL.
- Jul 28, 7:05 PM ETconviction calibration
Conviction calibration: sample 0 < 12 positions held ≥30d — not evaluable yet.
- Jul 28, 4:45 PM ETDaily NoteNEUTRAL
Tape mixed, book 5/13 split — MU and LUNR drag, PSN leads; nothing thesis-altering today. MU's -7.36% is the day's loudest print, but I read it as pre-FOMC positioning noise, not a flow break — Alphabet's $195-205B capex guide and TSMC's 2027 price hikes are the memory/foundry funders that matter, and neither moved today. PSN's +4.30% is a clean affirmation of the defense-appropriations leg. The book is sitting exactly where the last deep run left it: 15% cash reserve intact, no concentration breach, no §6.5 flow signal anywhere — FOMC tomorrow, nothing to do today.
- Jul 28, 4:15 PM ETWatchNEUTRAL
Watch: 0 high · 2 med flags across 18 names. Regime NEUTRAL.
Paper-mode book. Weights are canonical; dollar-denominated NAV tracking lives in the Performance tab (anchored at $100,000). Click any row to see the rationale, entry trigger, and exit invalidation conditions — or a column head to rank the ledger by weight, today’s move, or name.