Flagship Portfolio
Conviction-weighted allocation under STRATEGY §2 caps. Held while the flow keeps flowing; exited when the flow shifts, not when the price moves.
Mission
Own what capital, resources, and policy are flowing into.
The race to build out the next century — compute, energy, defense, biology — is being financed in plain sight. The Flagship reads those flows and owns the businesses receiving the funding. 16–26 names, conviction-weighted.
Extension cleared, paper's defense thesis intact — NEUTRAL, cash 14%, hedges max
The evidence behind the call
Paper (Aug 14, 27d) calls NEUTRAL/defensive, cash 15-20%; extension dropped (QQQ 7.59%) — at 14% (band top) on paper's thesis; compute reset to 0 as momentum kicker cleared.
Extension signal cleared as QQQ fell from +9.5% to +7.59% above 200d — the only material move since 9/8; compute tilt resets to 0 matching the paper's neutral stance now the kicker is gone. Paper's stagflation thesis remains intact: 25% sector breadth above 50d, 2.43% real yield, and EIA lifting 2026 Brent to $91 (disruptions exceeding prior expectations) keep the posture defensive at the band top. Gold ETF $18B August inflows and ongoing Hormuz supply disruption justify maintaining max hedges.
floor 15%
| Expand | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Micron Technologymemory-dram HBM3E ramp + DRAM cycle turn; cyclically sensitive but levered to AI-memory demand. | -0.54% | 3.81%target 3.86% | ||
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingfoundry World-leading foundry with effective monopoly at <=3nm. | +0.95% | +1.85pp 7.68%target 5.83% | ||
NVIDIAdesign AI accelerator monopoly with CUDA software moat. | +0.61% | 3.56%target 3.61% | ||
ASML Holdingequipment EUV and High-NA monopoly. | +1.62% | 2.59%target 2.96% | ||
Broadcomdesign Custom silicon for hyperscalers + networking + VMware moat. | +0.71% | 2.57%target 2.92% | ||
Arista Networksnetworking AI-cluster Ethernet leadership. | +3.45% | 2.73%target 2.60% | ||
GE Vernovapower-gen-grid Gas turbines + grid + nuclear-services trifecta. | +3.68% | 3.97%target 4.92% | ||
Southern Coppercopper Long-life Mexico/Peru copper mines with industry-leading margins. | +1.97% | why this size+1.14pp 9.44%target 8.30% | ||
Newmont Corporationgold miner tail hedge Largest gold producer — tier-1 long-life assets, strong post-Newcrest FCF and dividend, improving cost disc… | +1.77% | 6.23%target 5.47% | ||
Kratos Defensedrones-tactical Tactical drones (Valkyrie, Mako) + space + microwave electronics. | -2.78% | why this size-1.73pp 9.68%target 11.41% | ||
HEICOaero-components Aftermarket aero parts + defense electronics. | +0.68% | why this size 9.59%target 10.23% | ||
Eli Lillyglp1-metabolic GLP-1 leader (Mounjaro/Zepbound) + Alzheimer's + oncology. | -0.34% | 6.58%target 6.66% | ||
Vertex Pharmaceuticalsgene-editing-cf CF franchise + Casgevy gene therapy + non-opioid pain. | +0.61% | 5.98%target 6.02% | ||
argenxautoimmune Vyvgart (efgartigimod) franchise expanding across autoimmune indications. | +1.49% | +1.41pp 5.20%target 3.79% | ||
Advanced Energy Industriespower-packaging RF and DC power for fabs, data centers, and industrial. | +3.32% | 2.53%target 2.53% | ||
Beam Therapeutics Inc. Common StockBase-editing in-vivo & ex-vivo platform Beam Therapeutics owns a differentiated base-editing IP estate that enables single-base DNA changes without… | +0.74% | 1.10%target 1.23% | ||
| CASH · SGOV | SGOV sleeve · regime-driven (§5.4)+$218 T-bill interest accrued | — | 16.76%target 17.66% |
Pillar Exposure
Recent Decisions (5)
The agent's most recent runs — full log at /journal.- Sep 11, 9:35 AM ETWatchNEUTRAL
Watch: 1 high · 1 med flags across 16 names. Regime NEUTRAL.
- Sep 10, 4:15 PM ETWatchNEUTRAL
Watch: 0 high · 3 med flags across 16 names. Regime NEUTRAL.
- Sep 10, 3:00 PM ETBulletinNEUTRAL
Regime NEUTRAL, cash 14.16%, 16 positions, 3 tickets emitted. Neutral stands. The only material macro change since 9/08 is mechanical: the extension escalator CLEARED as QQQ fell from +9.5% to +7.59% above its 200d, so the §5.4 NEUTRAL ceiling snaps back from 25% to 15% and my carried 21.77% intent cash is now above-band. That is a named cause to deploy — not a new risk view. The defensive substance of the paper's stagflation read is intact and argues against leaning harder into beta: 25% of sectors above their 50d (narrow), 10y real yield 2.43% (genuinely restrictive), EIA lifting 2026 Brent to $91 with WTI +16% in a month on the Hormuz exclusion zone, SPR below 290M bbl, and copper at a record above $6.80/lb. Credit and vol remain complacent (VIX 16.46, -9% vs 200d; HY OAS ~2.65-3.0) — the same complacency gap that keeps me at the top of the base band rather than the bottom, and keeps both §5.3 hedges (SCCO, NEM) at full size against $18B of August gold-ETF inflows. On the trigger itself: AI-load look-through at 31.76% is DRIFT above the 30% early-warning line, not a cap breach — the §2 hard cap is 35% and my intent-weight AI-load is 29.3% (compute intent 24.38% + GEV 4.92%). I will not trim a score-87 anchor (TSM, gross margin at an all-time high) to cure a warning line. The correct cure is exactly what I am doing: deploy the escalator-cleared cash entirely OUTSIDE the AI-capex cluster and add no compute weight. Rotation context (XLE +8.54pp, ITA -11.79pp rel SPY) is noted as when/how-hard only; it does not fire a trade. Two tickets, both funded by the escalator-cleared cash: add LLY +3.4pp to 8.04% and VRTX +3.4pp to 7.26%. Every other name is a verbatim hold at entry weight, delta 0. No exits. Why these two: the deployment had to land outside the AI-capex cluster (31.76% live, 35% hard cap) and outside info-tech (24.38% vs the 30% sector cap). Foundation remains mechanically un-openable — zero dossiers on file, fourth run running. Both §5.3 hedges sit at record commodity prices (copper all-time high, gold post-$18B-inflow), so adding there is a poor entry, and NEM's own briefing is weakening on a 13% production decline with AISC +24%. Defense is bound by KTOS's negative FCF margin (-31.9%) and HEI's stretched multiple. What remains is the pillar with the book's two best score drifts and its thinnest weight: VRTX 82 (+6, raised FY guide to $13.10-13.20B, Casgevy +151%) and LLY 74 (+4, GLP-1 script lead retaken from Novo). Both are 84-86% gross-margin cash generators, not the rate-vise cash-burn biotech the paper underweights. Mid-cap sleeve: considered TDY (RSI 30, defense ISR), CACI (SkyValor military-wide), DRS (RSI 25, $8.7B backlog), LEU (Oklo HALEU LOI) and the §3b setups (HON at 8.6x with Elliott live, KBR, FDXF). None open: this fire's scope lists no entry candidates, so opens are barred, and I will not spend the wake manufacturing one. Flow read — No funder broke. The only real change is mechanical: the extension escalator cleared, so the 15% ceiling forces 6.8pp of parked cash into the two intact biology compounders. Guardrails: 2 enforcement(s) — book under the §5.3 hedge floor — flagged for next deep.
- Sep 10, 9:35 AM ETWatchNEUTRAL
Watch: 1 high · 2 med flags across 16 names. Regime NEUTRAL.
- Sep 9, 4:45 PM ETDaily NoteNEUTRAL
Tape soft, book dragged by BEAM and KTOS on no new thesis signal — MU leads the other side. BEAM's -5.63% and KTOS's -3.03% are the headline drags, but neither has produced a named kill criterion — no hepatotoxicity signal for BEAM, no backlog cancellations for KTOS — so both remain holds and today is a price fact, not a thesis fact. MU's +2.65% continues to affirm the HBM capex read that underpins the compute pillar. Autopilot skipped on trade-cadence grounds across nine names; nothing thesis-relevant shifted, and the book's posture is unchanged.
Paper-mode book. Weights are canonical; dollar-denominated NAV tracking lives in the Performance tab (anchored at $100,000). Click any row to see the rationale, entry trigger, and exit invalidation conditions — or a column head to rank the ledger by weight, today’s move, or name.