The Track Record
The paper book's time-weighted return since inception, measured against the benchmark the strategy actually answers to — and published with everything needed to recompute it.
Cumulative TWR
+8.88%
since Apr 1
CAGR
+54.0%
annualized from 72d — extrapolated
Volatility
40.6%
annualized, daily basis
Sharpe
1.26
rf = 0%
Max drawdown
−15.8%
current −8.7%
Cash
-31.5%
of NAV today
Turnover
68.5%
trailing 12m, one-sided
- Flagship (TWR)
- Civilizational-Builder Basket (benchmark)
- SPY (reference index)
- QQQ (reference index)
The benchmark is the civilizational-builder basket defined in the strategy (§5.1) — not the S&P 500. SPY and QQQ are plotted for context only and are labeled accordingly: tracking error against broad indices is expected and accepted.
Monthly returns
| Month | Portfolio | Benchmark | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | +8.91% | +5.76% | +9.68% | +14.28% |
| May 2026 | +5.79% | +0.74% | +5.26% | +10.57% |
| Jun 2026 * | −5.49% | −4.85% | −2.10% | −2.41% |
* Partial month — measured from inception or through the latest priced day, not a full calendar month. Exact measurement windows are in the JSON export.
The civilizational-builder basket
Equal weight across the four pillars (25% each), equal weight across names within a pillar, rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar quarter. Computed on the same price-return basis as the portfolio. The list is versioned and append-only — currently v2026.1.
Disclosed: Initial list, constructed June 2026 retroactive to the portfolio's April 2026 inception. Disclosed as such on the Track Record page: the names were chosen with knowledge of April–June price action, so the benchmark's pre-June history carries hindsight risk. Versioned in git from here forward.
- NVDA · NVIDIA
AI accelerator monopoly with the CUDA software moat.
- MSFT · Microsoft
Hyperscale compute and the broadest enterprise AI distribution.
- AVGO · Broadcom
Custom AI silicon and the networking fabric of the data center.
- TSM · TSMC
The leading-edge foundry every AI chip ultimately passes through.
- VRT · Vertiv
Power and cooling infrastructure for the data-center build-out.
- CEG · Constellation Energy
Largest US nuclear fleet, prime beneficiary of compute power demand.
- VST · Vistra
Merchant power generation leveraged to data-center electricity demand.
- CCJ · Cameco
Western uranium supply for the nuclear restart.
- ETN · Eaton
Electrical equipment across the grid build-out and electrification.
- GEV · GE Vernova
Gas turbines, grid equipment, and nuclear services for new generation capacity.
- LMT · Lockheed Martin
The flagship US prime: aircraft, missiles, and missile defense.
- RTX · RTX
Munitions, air defense, and engines with deep replenishment backlogs.
- NOC · Northrop Grumman
Strategic deterrent programs: B-21 and the nuclear triad.
- GD · General Dynamics
Submarines and land systems at the center of naval recapitalization.
- PLTR · Palantir
Software-defined defense and the AI targeting layer.
- LLY · Eli Lilly
GLP-1 franchise leader in the metabolic-disease wave.
- NVO · Novo Nordisk
The other GLP-1 duopolist, with global obesity-care scale.
- ISRG · Intuitive Surgical
Robotic surgery platform with a compounding installed base.
- TMO · Thermo Fisher
Life-science tools: the picks and shovels of biology research.
- REGN · Regeneron
Antibody discovery engine with a genetics-driven pipeline.
Rebalanced: 2026-04-01 (2026-Q2)
How these numbers are made
The money is notional. The book runs against a fixed $100,000 reference. Positions are weights of that notional, and the daily value is rebuilt deterministically from the public trade tickets — the same tickets listed on the Trades page. Nothing on this page comes from a private ledger.
Returns are time-weighted. The headline series is a time-weighted return (TWR) index: daily returns geometrically linked, with any external cash flow neutralized by subperiod linking. This book has no external flows — capital is fixed at $100k — so the TWR equals the simple NAV chain, but the math is implemented (and tested) in its general form. You can recompute it row-by-row from the CSV below.
Prices come from Polygon.io. Daily official closes for every name, the benchmark constituents, SPY and QQQ. Scheduled rebalance tickets fill at that day's close; intraday autopilot tickets fill at their stamped market-hours fill price.
Dividends are excluded — everywhere. Every line on this page (portfolio, custom benchmark, SPY, QQQ) is computed on a price-return basis. That makes the comparison consistent, but it means each line slightly understates its total return — particularly for dividend payers in the basket. Total-return accounting is a documented future upgrade; until then, no line gets the benefit the others don't.
Fees are zero. No commissions, management fees, borrowing costs, or taxes are modeled. A real implementation would pay all of these.
Paper fills are generous. Simulated trades assume unlimited liquidity at the reference price: no bid-ask spread, no slippage, no partial fills, no market impact. This flatters the results relative to real execution, and is the single biggest reason these numbers should be read as a record of decisions, not of achievable returns.
Risk statistics. Volatility is the sample standard deviation of daily TWR returns, annualized by √252. Sharpe uses a 0% risk-free rate (stated, not hidden — at today's rates this flatters the ratio). CAGR compounds over calendar time and is flagged on the page whenever the track is shorter than a year, because annualizing a short record extrapolates it. Turnover is the trailing-12-month sum of absolute traded dollars, halved (so replacing the entire book once equals 100%), over average NAV — bootstrap tickets excluded.
Verify it yourself
Everything needed to recompute this page from $100,000 is in two files: the daily series and the full trade history (bootstrap opens included). The decision record behind the trades is sealed in an append-only hash chain — each journal entry's hash commits to everything before it, so history can't be quietly rewritten.