Closed via unlock path B — positionBriefer verdict=broken (score 53, never cleared 60); FCF and book-to-bill unconfirmed, thin moat as a defense-electronics roll-up. Redeployed into durable compounder
Eli Lilly — premier pharma compounder; Mounjaro/Zepbound GLP-1 franchise + retatrutide (Ph3 ~70lb loss) extends a multi-decade runway, deep margins, strong capital return. Flow: GPFG/large AM holders; Zealand rival failure clears runway; ID bolt-ons diversify. Rebuilding from the prior regime's 1.2% over-trim — a great franchise cut on rotation, not a break. [steady]
Vertex — CF monopoly (Trikafta) cash engine, self-funded, high margins; Casgevy gene therapy + suzetrigine non-opioid pain optionality. Durable biology anchor. Flow: GPFG/large AM holders; Casgevy pediatric expansion. Adding back from the prior regime's over-trim to 2.4% on a 'pillar underweight' directive, not a business break. [steady]
Parsons — C5ISR/cyber government-services prime; sticky multi-year IDIQ backlog. Flow: MDA SHIELD $151B-ceiling IDIQ, USAF MATOC $15B, Navy WEXMAC $10B. Trimming toward the ≤2pp limit — the Q4 miss (-8% YoY on a softened confidential contract) dented the backlog-conversion thesis. Locked 27d (unlock=none). [softening]
HEICO — defense/aero aftermarket compounder; Mendelson family owners since 1957, 20%+ FCF CAGR, disciplined serial acquirer ($1B+/yr). Textbook 20-30yr franchise. Flow: Q2 beat FSG $929M vs $864M, ETG $460M vs $396M; NDAA mandatory funding + commercial aerospace MRO. Anchor; locked 16d. [accelerating]
Kratos — tactical drones (XQ-58 Valkyrie), hypersonics, turbine engines; DAWG-adjacent defense-tech. Flow: DoD MACH-TB 2.0 $1.45B IDIQ ceiling, Project Helios $68.3M, USMC Valkyrie mods. Trimming the full 2pp — the FPV-subsidy catalyst was misattributed (targets disposable drones, not XQ-58); thesis still needs revenue-scale/margin confirmation. Locked 16d (unlock=none). [softening]
BWX Technologies — sole manufacturer of US Naval nuclear propulsion reactors; regulated-monopoly economics, multi-decade visibility. A genuinely durable franchise the score doesn't capture. Flow: $1.4B Naval Nuclear Propulsion contracts; Project Pele microreactor DoD-funded; PCC acquisition adds SMR heavy-mfg capacity. Trimming overweight; keeping the monopoly (locked, unlock=B available, not used [steady]
Southern Copper — lowest-cost copper producer, vast reserves, fat margins, large dividend; commodity tail-risk hedge slot. Flow: copper at ATH >$6.50/lb (vs $5 entry trigger); AI/data-center ~30% of new copper demand by 2030 (BloombergNEF); Tia Maria/Los Chancas pipeline; Grupo Mexico backing. Locked 16d (unlock=none). [steady]
MP Materials — only scaled US rare-earth + magnet producer; DoD-backstopped moat vs China's 98% magnet control. Flow: DoD $400M Series A preferred + $150M loan + 10-yr NdPr price floor and 10-yr magnet offtake for the 10X facility. Commodity-producer hedge. Locked 16d (unlock=none). [steady]
GE Vernova — gas-turbine + grid franchise with pricing power; 100GW turbine backlog, $150B+ total backlog sold through 2028, 10-20% price realization. Durable electrification/AI-load compounder. Flow: Norway GPFG added post-spin; hyperscaler grid pull-through. Energy anchor — minor rebalance trim only. [steady]
Cameco — tier-1 Saskatchewan uranium franchise + Westinghouse 49% JV with Brookfield; commodity tail-risk hedge slot (§5.3). Flow: utility contract book at $60+/lb vs term-market ~$93/lb; Kazatomprom 8Mlb output cut sustains structural deficit through 2028; AI-DC nuclear PPA rush. Trimming the drift-driven 9.25% overweight to cut concentration, not exiting. [softening]
Fabrinet — optical transceiver/packaging manufacturer interconnecting hyperscaler AI clusters; capital-light, debt-free, extracts capex without silicon R&D risk. Flow: AWS dominant customer drove 35.9% YoY growth; 800G/1.6T demand from NVDA/AMD clusters; brief §7.1 named mid-cap. Locked 21d (unlock=none). [softening]
HBM3e/HBM4 memory — sold out through 2026, structural shortage thesis to 2029; cyclical but capacity-disciplined. Flow: hyperscaler HBM commitments under the ~$725B 2026 capex line. Score 77 flat; June -11% was AVGO-sympathy macro, not a memory break. Locked 16d (unlock=none). [steady]
Arista Networks — durable hyperscaler networking franchise; market-share gainer since 2004, ~65% gross margin, net cash, single-image EOS software moat, Ullal-led capital discipline. Flow: Microsoft & Meta named as its largest customers funding 800G/AI back-end switching under the ~$725B 2026 hyperscaler capex wave. Replaces broken MRCY with an established compounder. [accelerating]
Custom-silicon + VMware software franchise — huge FCF, $7B+ annual buyback, serial dividend grower. Flow: GOOG TPU multi-gen, META MTIA, Anthropic 3.5GW ASIC contracts; Q2 confirmed AI segment +143% to $10.8B and $30B+ bookings; Tiger Global added Q1. The Q3 guide disappointment was conservatism vs whisper, not contract loss. [softening]
EUV lithography monopoly — the single most irreplaceable tool in advanced semis, ~50% gross margin, multi-year backlog. Flow: Norway GPFG holds, Coatue added Q1; TSMC/Samsung/SMIC 2025-27 EUV orderbook backstops cash flow. Adding back from a 1% stub — the score collapse was 10y-yield multiple compression, not a bookings break. [steady]
CUDA/accelerator franchise — ~75% gross margin, dominant AI training/inference moat, fortress balance sheet, large capital return. Flow: ~$725B 2026 hyperscaler capex anchored on Blackwell/Rubin (MSFT $190B, AMZN $200B, GOOGL $180-190B, META $125-145B); Stargate $500B JV; GPFG/GIC hold. Reversing the prior regime's over-trim to 3.1% on rotation/valuation, not a business break. [steady]
Foundry monopoly on leading-edge (<3nm) — >50% gross margin, prodigious FCF, disciplined capex; routes the world's AI silicon for decades. Flow: CHIPS Act $6.6B Arizona disbursement locked; Jensen Huang's $150B Taiwan AI-hub plan; NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO leading-edge wafers flow exclusively here; C.C. Wei guiding 15-25% 3nm price hikes 2026-27 = pricing power. Norway GPFG holds. Anchor — adding back fr [accelerating]
Intuitive Machines — NASA Near Space Network IDIQ $4.82B ceiling (active); CLPS $180.4M firm task order (Mar 2026); US Space Force Andromeda IDIQ $6.2B ceiling; $428.9M new Q1 2026 contracts from SDA+NASA; record $1.1B contracted backlog. June -22.8% is SpaceX IPO fatigue/sector, not contract loss. Within 29d lock. [steady]
MDA SHIELD IDIQ awardee, $151B ceiling (Dec 2025); DTRA cyber-ops IDIQ $137M; USAF MATOC $15B; Navy WEXMAC TITUS 2.1 IDIQ $10B; $100M DoD munitions contract — all prime awards per Parsons IR; Iran-strike defense-spending bid. Within 29d lock. [steady]
Record RTBX06 BuiltSECURE server production order (largest single CPA order); L3Harris SDA Tranche 3 SSDR award across all four tranches; embedded in 300+ defense programs (F-35, Patriot); $60M+ contracts through 2031. [steady]
AWS dominant customer driving 35.9% YoY rev growth prior Q; Q3 FY26 rev $1.21B and EPS $3.72 both beat (record results); 800G/1.6T optical transceiver demand from NVDA/AMD GPU clusters; Brief §7.1 explicit mid-cap. Post-beat -10.8% selloff is valuation friction, not demand loss. Within 23d lock. [softening]
HBM3e/HBM4 capacity sold out through 2026; hyperscaler HBM commitments underpinned by ~$725B 2026 capex; memory-shortage thesis runs through 2029. Score 77 flat — June -11% is macro/AVGO-sympathy, not a memory-demand break. Within 18d conviction lock. [steady]
Hyperscaler custom-silicon contracts: GOOG TPU multi-gen, META MTIA, Anthropic 3.5GW; Q2 print confirmed AI seg +143% to $10.8B and $30B+ bookings; Tiger Global added Q1; $7B+ annual buyback funded by VMware cash flow. Q2 rev miss/Q3 AI guide are conservatism vs whisper, not contract loss. [softening]
EUV monopoly intact; Coatue Q1 add affirms thesis; Norway GPFG holds; TSMC/Samsung/SMIC 2025-27 EUV orderbook backstops cash flow. Score 64 (-21 drift) is multiple compression on rising 10y yields, not a bookings break. [softening]
Hyperscaler 2026 capex ~$725B anchored on Blackwell/Rubin (MSFT $190B, AMZN $200B, GOOGL $180-190B, META $125-145B); Stargate $500B JV NVDA-hardware anchored; SK Telecom gigawatt-scale Korea AI-cloud DSX deal (6/8) corroborates platform; GPFG/GIC hold. AVGO-driven AI skepticism is sentiment, not a capex cut. [softening]
Jensen Huang named $150B/yr Taiwan AI-hub investment; CHIPS Act $6.6B Arizona disbursement locked; NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO leading-edge silicon flows exclusively through TSMC sub-3nm; CEO C.C. Wei signaling 15-25% 3nm price hikes 2026-27 = foundry pricing power (margin-accretive, not eroding). Score 83 +1, only positive-momentum compute name. [steady]
LLY took GLP-1 leadership (~2/3 of Q1 2026 sales), pressing the 10pt US share-loss invalidation; score 67 weakening; redundant with LLY in a pared biology pillar. Non-US floor still satisfied at 25%.
Broken thesis, score 43 (briefer verdict=broken, unlock path B active). Trump unwinding Biden-era clean-energy subsidies removes the policy tailwind; risk/reward skewed after +1,380% YTD on fuel-cell
Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise compounding internationally; retatrutide Ph3 28-30% body-weight loss leapfrogs semaglutide; Curevo $1.5B + LimmaTech acquisitions; Norway GPFG and large AM holders. Trim under the biology-underweight directive as NVO oral disruption + GLP-1 pricing pressure materialize. [softening]
CF franchise (Trikafta) cash engine; Casgevy partnership with CRISPR expanding to pediatric populations; suzetrigine non-opioid pain launch tracking; CTX611 anticoagulant ($20B TAM) trial data upcoming; self-funded cash runway insulates from the 4.45% yield duration trap. Only intact biology score (76, -2 drift). Anchor — modest add as the pillar's quality hold while paring the rest. [steady]
Intuitive Machines — NASA Near Space Network IDIQ $4.82B ceiling (active); CLPS $180.4M firm task order (Mar 2026); US Space Force Andromeda IDIQ $6.2B ceiling (Q2 2026); $428.9M new Q1 2026 contracts from SDA+NASA; record $1.1B contracted backlog. Defense/space flow_score 79. Sized small given today's -13.8% volatility. [accelerating]
Parsons — MDA SHIELD IDIQ awardee, $151B ceiling (Dec 2025); DTRA cyber-ops IDIQ $137M; USAF MATOC $15B; Navy WEXMAC TITUS 2.1 IDIQ $10B; $100M DoD munitions contract — all prime awards per Parsons IR. Iran strikes on Kuwait/Bahrain directly bid missile-defense/C-UAS integration. Mid-cap defense prime, flow_score 79. [accelerating]
Record RTBX06 BuiltSECURE server production order (largest single CPA order); L3Harris SDA Tranche 3 SSDR award across all four tranches; embedded in 300+ defense programs (F-35, Patriot); $60M+ contracts through 2031. Iran defense bid supportive. Within 24d lock. [steady]
Mendelson family owners since 1957, 20%+ FCF CAGR; Q2 beat FSG $929M vs $864M, ETG $460M vs $396M; Wencor integration accretive; $1B+ acquisition tape annually; NDAA mandatory funding + commercial aerospace MRO. Defense-aftermarket compounder, anchor. Within 19d lock (trim ≤2pp). [steady]
Monopoly U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion reactor manufacturer — $1.4B propulsion contracts recently awarded; Project Pele microreactor fully DoD-funded; Precision Custom Components acquisition adds heavy-mfg capacity for hyperscaler SMR wave. Brief §7.3 explicit candidate. Score 55 but named flow intact and accelerating w/ nuclear renaissance. Within 24d lock (trim ≤2pp). [steady]
Copper at all-time highs >$6.50/lb (well above $5/lb entry trigger); BHP results confirm copper margin leadership; AI/data-center ~30% of new copper demand by 2030 (BloombergNEF); Tia Maria/Los Chancas project pipeline; Mexican-gov dividend signal. Commodity-producer tail-risk hedge slot. Within 19d lock (add allowed). [accelerating]
DoD $400M Series A Preferred (Jul 2025) + up to $350M additional + $150M DoD loan for heavy rare-earth separation; 10-yr NdPr price floor + 10-yr magnet offtake for 10X Facility; China 98% magnet control. Defense critical-minerals financing strengthening (EU/Western mobilization, May 29) — adds into the defense-minerals bid. Commodity-producer hedge slot. Within 19d lock (add allowed). [accelerating]
100 GW gas-turbine backlog Q1 2026 with 10-20% price realization growth (brief §5.2); H-class fleet 4M operating hours; $150B+ backlog sold out through 2028; Norway GPFG added post-spin; AI data-center grid pull-through. Iran energy bid reinforces. Anchor. [steady]
Saskatchewan provincial backstop; Westinghouse 49% JV with Brookfield; utility contract book at $60+/lb with term-market ~$93/lb (brief §5.2); Kazatomprom 8Mlb output cut maintains structural deficit through 2028; AI-DC nuclear PPA rush. Anchor + commodity-producer tail-risk hedge slot. [steady]
AWS is dominant customer driving 35.9% YoY rev growth prior Q; Q3 FY26 rev $872M (+19%), EPS $3.72 beat; 800G/1.6T optical transceiver demand from NVDA/AMD GPU clusters. Brief §7.1 explicit mid-cap candidate. Post-beat -10.8% selloff is sentiment, not a flow break. Within 24d lock (trim ≤2pp). [steady]
HBM3e/HBM4 capacity sold out through 2026; hyperscaler HBM commitments underpinned by ~$725B 2026 capex; memory-shortage thesis runs through 2029. Score 77 (flat drift), highest compute score behind TSM. Within 19d conviction lock. [steady]
Hyperscaler custom-silicon contracts: GOOG TPU multi-gen, META MTIA, Anthropic 3.5GW; Hock Tan named >$25B AI revenue FY26 (AI seg +143% to $10.8B); $7B+ annual buyback funded by VMware cash flow; Tiger Global added Q1. [softening]
EUV monopoly intact; Coatue Q1 add affirms thesis; Norway GPFG holds; ASML 2030 guidance + TSMC/Samsung/SMIC 2025-27 EUV orderbook backstop cash flow. Score 64 (-21 drift) drives the pare under the compute-underweight directive; NL listing also supports the non-US floor. [softening]
Hyperscaler 2026 capex ~$725B anchored on Blackwell/Rubin (MSFT $190B, AMZN $200B, GOOGL $180-190B, META $125-145B); Stargate $500B JV NVDA-hardware anchored; GPFG/GIC hold. BUT Third Point (Loeb) cut stake 90% in Q1 (2.95M→190K) — a named-funder reversal, hence the pare into the compute-underweight directive. [softening]
Jensen Huang named $150B/yr Taiwan AI-hub investment; CHIPS Act $6.6B Arizona disbursement locked; NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO leading-edge silicon flows exclusively through TSMC sub-3nm. CEO C.C. Wei signaling 15-25% 3nm price hikes 2026-27 = pricing power, not weakness. Score 83, only intact compute name. Anchor. [steady]
Unlock path B: positionBriefer verdict=broken. Two securities class action lawsuits (Bernstein Liebhard, Rosen Law) filed alleging materially false statements re: SCAR program competition. Score stuck
Unlock path B: positionBriefer verdict=broken. Conviction score 44 below 60 floor on first journal entry. April $4B senior notes at 6.1-6.4% adds leverage risk to PPA cash-flow story. Nuclear sector -
Discovery-agent flow_score 100. DoD space and strategic weapons contracts >$60M (Jan 2026): radiation-hardened signal processing program extension through 2031, national security space program production contract. Multi-year cost-plus-fixed-fee multi-domain subsystem development contract (Sep 2025). $12.3M avionics CMU contract. Record $1.5B backlog; book-to-bill 1.23. Mid-cap displacement for DAW [accelerating]
Brief §7.3 explicit mid-cap candidate. Monopoly Naval Nuclear Propulsion reactor manufacturer — $1.4B propulsion contracts recently awarded. Project Pele microreactor fully DoD-funded. Precision Custom Components acquisition adds heavy manufacturing for commercial SMR wave (hyperscaler PPAs). NRC Part 53 final rule (Mar 25 2026) accelerates SMR licensing. $18.6B mcap. Dual-pillar exposure energy+d [accelerating]
Brief §7.1 explicit mid-cap candidate. AWS hyperscaler is dominant customer driving 35.9% YoY revenue growth prior Q; Q3 FY26 total revenue $872M (+19% YoY). 800G/1.6T optical transceiver demand from Nvidia/AMD GPU clusters. Extracts hyperscaler CapEx wave without absorbing component-inflation tax that hits hyperscalers and model-builders. $24.6B mcap — mid-cap displacement. [accelerating]
FDA expanded Vyvgart/Hytrulo approval to all gMG serotypes including seronegative (5/28-29 — 18% TAM expansion). Market projected $6B→$16B by 2036. Pipeline: CIDP, MMN, SjD label expansion ongoing. Multi-billion peak sales trajectory. Score 71, drift 0. Within 25-day lock. Brief §5.4 commercial-stage criterion met. [accelerating]
Wegovy/Ozempic franchise cash-generative; Novo Holdings sovereign-style ownership backstop. Norway GPFG and large EU pension funds hold. Oral Wegovy differentiator vs LLY injectable at cheaper 37x P/E. CagriSema next-gen pipeline. [softening]
Only intact biology score (76, drift -2). Casgevy partnership with CRISPR expanding to pediatric populations; suzetrigine non-opioid pain launch tracking; CTX611 anticoagulant ($20B TAM) trial data upcoming. Self-funded cash runway insulates from 4.45% yield duration trap per brief §5.4 commercial-stage-only criterion. Mature CF franchise still cash-generative. [steady]
Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise compounding internationally; retatrutide Phase 3 28-30% body-weight loss leapfrogs semaglutide and frames multi-decade franchise (5/30). Curevo $1.5B + LimmaTech acquisitions extend vaccine/ID portfolio. Norway GPFG and large AM holders. Trump Q1 13F loaded additional LLY (5/28 haiku flag). [softening]
Defense aftermarket compounder — Mendelson family owners since 1957, 20%+ FCF CAGR. Q2 beat: FSG $929M vs $864M consensus, ETG $460M vs $396M. Wencor integration accretive. Acquisition tape adding $1B+ revenue annually. NDAA mandatory funding + commercial aerospace MRO duopoly tailwind. Score 68, drift 0. [steady]
DoD MACH-TB 2.0 IDIQ prime $1.45B ceiling 5yr (Jan 2025); DoD Industrial Base Project Helios hypersonic materials $68.3M single-award (Oct 2025); USMC XQ-58A Valkyrie MUX TACAIR $34.8M mod; C5ISR hardware $30M+. DAWG-adjacent. Brief §5.3 autonomous-systems theme. Within 25-day lock. [steady]
Copper $6.50+/lb ATH in Jan 2026; BHP results confirm copper margin leadership. AI/data-center demand 30% of new copper demand by 2030 per BloombergNEF. Tia Maria and Los Chancas project additions. Mexican gov dividend signal. Tail-risk commodity-producer hedge slot per §5.3. Score stable 63, drift 0. [steady]
DoD $400M Series A Preferred (Jul 2025) + up to $350M additional + $150M DoD loan for heavy rare earth separation. 10-year NdPr price floor and 10-year magnet offtake commitment for 10X Facility. China rare earth magnet 98% control creates 2027 supply deadline (per NOC briefing). Brief §7.3 mid-cap candidate adjacent. [steady]
Brookfield $5B AI data-center fuel-cell partnership (Oct 2025); Oracle on-site DC power agreement with warrant for 3.53M shares; record $6B product backlog tied to AI infra; Nebius partnership (5/28). Capacity doubling to 2GW annual. Q1 2026 revenue +130% YoY. [steady]
H-class turbine fleet 4M operating hours (128 units, 74GW), $150B+ backlog sold out through 2028. 100 GW gas turbine backlog Q1 2026 per brief §5.2 with 10-20% price realization growth. AI data-center grid pull-through. Norway GPFG added post-spin. IRA transmission/grid grants flowing. [steady]
Saskatchewan provincial backstop; Westinghouse 49% JV with Brookfield; long-term utility uranium contract book at $60+/lb with term-market spiking to ~$93/lb per brief §5.2. Kazatomprom 8Mlb output cut maintains structural deficit through 2028. 75 reactors under construction globally. Q1 EPS +88%. [steady]
HBM3e/HBM4 capacity sold out through 2026; UBS PT to $1,650 on memory boom. Big-tech capex through 2027 underpins HBM ramp. Stock crossed $1T market cap on AI memory demand. Score 77, drift 0. Within 25-day conviction lock. [steady]
Hyperscaler custom-silicon contracts: GOOG TPU multi-gen, META MTIA, Anthropic 3.5GW. Hock Tan named >$25B AI revenue trajectory FY26. Tiger Global increased stake (5/28). VMware integration cash flow funds $7B+ annual buyback. [softening]
EUV monopoly intact at trimmed weight; Coatue Q1 add affirms thesis. Norway GPFG holds. ASML 2030 guidance anchors long-cycle thesis. TSMC/Samsung/SMIC 2025-27 EUV orderbook backstops cash flow despite -21pt score drift. [softening]
Only intact compute name (score 83, drift +1). Jensen named $150B/yr Taiwan AI hub investment; CHIPS Act $6.6B Arizona disbursement locked. NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO leading-edge silicon flows exclusively through TSMC sub-3nm nodes. Top tech fund holds at 14.4% concentration. Sustained >50% gross margin. [accelerating]
Hyperscaler 2026 capex anchored on Blackwell/H200: MSFT $190B, AMZN $200B, GOOGL $180-190B, META $125-145B — ~$725B aggregate per brief §5.1. Stargate $500B JV NVDA-hardware anchored. Norway GPFG and GIC added through 2024 13F cycle. Iren neocloud deal confirms domestic demand. [softening]
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Vyvgart franchise inflecting: gMG approval expanding to CIDP, MMN, SjD; multi-billion peak sales trajectory. Score 71 on watchlist. Self-sustaining commercial biotech that fits brief §5.4 commercial-stage-only constraint. Belgian ADR adds non-US weight. [steady]
Wegovy/Ozempic franchise still cash-generative; CagriSema next-gen pipeline; Novo Holdings sovereign-style ownership backstop. Norway GPFG and large EU pension funds hold. Generic exposure in India is real but cash-generative core intact. [softening]
Only intact biology score (76, drift -2). Casgevy partnership with CRISPR expanding to pediatrics; suzetrigine non-opioid pain pipeline; CTX611 anticoagulant ($20B TAM). Self-funded cash runway insulates from 4.6% yield duration trap per brief §5.4. Pillar quality anchor. [steady]
Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise compounding internationally; retatrutide Phase 3 28% body-weight loss leapfrogs semaglutide; Curevo $1.5B + LimmaTech acquisitions extending vaccine/ID portfolio. Norway GPFG and large AM holders. GLP-1 ETF outperformance signal. [steady]
Pure-play loitering munitions + autonomous systems per brief §7.1. DoD Replicator initiative budget allocation expanding (FY26 supplemental). NATO stockpile depletion in Ukraine driving multi-year backlog. BlueHalo merger (closed 2024) adds space/directed-energy. Switchblade-600 named Replicator vehicle. [accelerating]
Defense aftermarket compounder — Mendelson family owners since 1957, 20%+ FCF CAGR sustained. Acquisition tape adding $1B+ rev annually. Wencor integration accretive. Score 68 on watchlist; NDAA mandatory funding + commercial aerospace MRO cycle dual-tailwind. [steady]
DoD MACH-TB 2.0 IDIQ prime: $1.45B ceiling 5-year (signed Jan 6 2025); DoD Industrial Base Project Helios hypersonic materials center $68.3M single-award (Oct 2025); USMC XQ-58A Valkyrie MUX TACAIR $34.8M mod (Jan 2025); C5ISR hardware $30M (Dec 2025); aviation training $65M (Feb 2026). Pure-play on Replicator/hypersonic flow per brief §5.3. [accelerating]
Copper supply deficit structural through grid electrification + AI DC build (~30% of new copper demand by 2030 per BloombergNEF). Tia Maria and Los Chancas project additions; Mexican gov dividend signal. Commodity-producer hedge slot per §5.3. Score 63 on watchlist. [steady]
DoD multi-billion public-private partnership: $400M Series A Preferred (closed Jul 11 2025) + up to $350M additional + $150M DoD loan for heavy rare earth separation; 10-year NdPr price floor commitment + 10-year magnet offtake for 10X Facility (10,000 MT/yr NdFeB). DoD is largest shareholder (~15%). Commodity-producer hedge slot per §5.3. [accelerating]
Brookfield $5B AI data-center fuel-cell partnership (Oct 13 2025); Oracle on-site DC power agreement with warrant for 3.53M shares (Oct 28 2025 SEC 8-K); record product backlog $6B tied to AI infrastructure; capacity doubling to 2 GW annual by end-2026; prior agreements with Equinix, AEP, Quanta. [accelerating]
AWS expanded PPA: 1,920 MW carbon-free nuclear from Susquehanna through 2042 (June 11 2025 SEC 8-K); SMR co-development and uprate exploration with AWS; Caithness CCGT acquisition (Jul 2025) immediately >40% FCF/share accretive in 2026. 2026 management EBITDA guide $1.75-2.05B / FCF $980M-$1.18B. [accelerating]
H-class turbine fleet 4M operating hours (128 units, 74GW), $150B+ backlog sold out through 2028, AI data-center grid pull-through. Norway GPFG added post-spin. IRA transmission/grid grants still flowing. [steady]
Saskatchewan provincial backstop; Westinghouse 49% JV (Brookfield co-owner); long-term utility uranium contract book at $60+/lb floors with term-market spiking toward $150/lb per brief §5.2 (Kazatomprom 8Mlb output cut). IRA reactor incentives + 75 reactors under construction globally. Q1 +88% EPS growth. §5.3 commodity-producer hedge slot. [steady]
Memory infrastructure bottleneck narrative inflecting — haiku flagged 5/27 'market narrative shifting toward memory chip infrastructure (SK Hynix, Micron at $1T valuations)'. HBM3e/HBM4 capacity sold out through 2026; HBM commitments from NVDA Blackwell, AMD MI350, Trainium3 anchor demand. Score 77 on watchlist, no policy items pressuring. [accelerating]
Hyperscaler custom-silicon contracts: GOOG TPU multi-gen, META MTIA, ByteDance/Anthropic 3.5GW deal. Hock Tan named >$25B AI revenue trajectory FY26. VMware integration cash flow funds $7B+ annual buyback. Pre-earnings expectations 47% YoY rev / 52% EPS growth June 3. [softening]
EUV monopoly intact; Coatue added in Q1 affirming thesis. Norway GPFG holds. ASML 2030 guidance anchors long-cycle thesis. TSMC/Samsung/SMIC 2025-27 EUV orderbook still backstops cash flow. [softening]
Only intact compute name in book (score 83, drift +1). Jensen announced $150B/yr Taiwan AI hub investment validating leading-edge node monopoly. CHIPS Act $6.6B Arizona disbursement locked. NVDA/AMD/AAPL/AVGO leading-edge silicon flows exclusively through TSMC. FY26 guidance raised >30%. Taiwan sovereign de facto backstop. [accelerating]
Hyperscaler 2026 capex still anchored on Blackwell/H200: MSFT $190B, AMZN $200B, GOOGL $180-190B, META $125-145B — combined ~$725B AI capex per brief §5.1. Stargate $500B JV NVDA-hardware anchored. Norway GPFG and GIC additions through 2024 13F cycle still in place; CHIPS-adjacent funding flows intact. [softening]
Keytruda franchise cash flow + pipeline bridge to 2028 LOE; Norway GPFG and large AM holders. [reversing]
Bioprocessing destock-end thesis was the entry catalyst (never materialized); China life-science tools demand structurally weak per briefer. [reversing]
F135 engine + Patriot missile orderbook (Ukraine/Israel/Saudi/Poland), Pratt GTF reserve cycle ostensibly inflecting. [reversing]
Grid-equipment backlog ~$116B (GE Vernova FY24 disclosure), IRA transmission/grid grants, hyperscaler grid-buildout pull-through. Norway GPFG added post-spin. [softening]
ERCOT power demand from Texas datacenter buildout, Comanche Peak nuclear PPA optionality with hyperscalers, retail-gen earnings stream. [reversing]
Sentinel ICBM program $140B+ multi-decade contract, B-21 Raider production ramp, DoD nuclear-modernization budget line. Norway GPFG holds. [reversing]
Saskatchewan provincial backstop, Westinghouse JV (Brookfield co-owner), long-term utility uranium contract book at $60+/lb floors, IRA reactor incentives. Functions as commodity-producer tail-risk hedge slot per §5.3. [softening]
Hyperscaler custom-silicon contracts: GOOG TPU (multi-gen), META MTIA, BYTE/others — Hock Tan named >$25B AI-revenue trajectory FY26. VMware integration cash flow funding $7B+ annual buyback. [softening]
MSFT 20-yr Three Mile Island PPA originally anchored the thesis; IRA nuclear PTC + hyperscaler datacenter power demand. Norway GPFG holds. [reversing]