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METHODOLOGY · THE RULES ARE CODE
Source of truth: STRATEGY.md

How the machine manages the book.

The full strategy is a public, versioned document. This is the working digest: what the AI is allowed to do, what the code refuses to let it do, and where to check the receipts.

New to the markets, or tripping over the jargon? Start with the plain-English guide →



§1 · §3 · §6.2 — THE THESIS

Durable businesses, owned while the wind is at their back.

The Flagship owns 18–20 genuinely durable franchises — strong economics, sound balance sheets, managers who allocate capital well — and owns them while sovereign-wealth flows, hyperscaler capex, defense bills, and enacted policy are at their back. The tailwind is not the thesis; the durable business is. A position holds through drawdowns and weak prints as long as the business and its structural tailwind are intact, and exits when one of them breaks — not because the price moved.

The signal mix is fixed in policy: ~50% business durability (franchise, unit economics, balance sheet, management), ~30% policy & macro tailwind (defense bills, CHIPS/IRA-style programs, the rate backdrop), and ~20% capital-flow confirmation (13F deltas, capex commitments, insider clusters). Technicals and sentiment appear nowhere in that list — they decay too fast and add turnover without alpha.

Positions cluster in four pillars — a diversification frame, not a quota: Compute, AI & Software, Energy & grid, Defense & sovereign capability, Biology & longevity. Builder bias throughout: companies that physically build — fabs, reactors, ships, drug pipelines — are first-class, alongside durable, mission-critical software in the Compute pillar.

Compute22.22%
Energy20.32%
Defense19.28%
Biology13.11%
Live pillar exposure from the current book · the 40% concentration cap binds per pillar.

§2 — THE GUARDRAILS

The model proposes. The caps dispose.

Every Monday the strategist proposes a target book — and a mechanical cap engine sizes it down to whatever the rules permit, no matter how convinced the model sounds. The caps are code (sizing/caps.js), not prompt instructions: changing one requires a strategy edit and a commit, never a persuasive argument.

Position count18–20Variable band — the strategist picks within it on conviction depth. New names displace old ones; the total stays inside the band.
Single-name cap12% · 18% ceiling12% at entry; only a mechanical conviction score ≥ 85 unlocks sizing up to the 18% hard cap. Breaches are force-trimmed.
Minimum position1% of NAVA sub-1% target snaps to a clean close — no dust slivers.
Theme concentration≤ 40% per pillarKeeps 'durable compounders' from quietly becoming a single-theme bet.
Country cap · non-US floor≤ 65% · ≥ 15%US is usually the binding country; the non-US floor is structural, satisfied via ADRs.
Tail-risk hedge floor≥ 2 slotsGold miners, oil majors, or diversified commodity producers — real positions with their own theses. A target cannot trade the book below the floor.
Leverage · derivativesNoneLong-only. No options, no inverse ETFs, no vol products — the paper book maps to a plain brokerage account.
Right now: 16 positions · 14.3% cash · 26.1% non-US — all inside the caps above.

§5.4 — CASH & REGIME

Three regimes set the cash band. Floors never move.

Cash is governed by a three-regime composite read weekly from VIX, the yield curve, credit spreads, market breadth, and index extension. The regime call proposes a cash target; the band is enforced mechanically at every decision seam.

RISK-ON0–10% cashHedges sized to the 2-slot floor; tilt toward Compute, away from Defense.
NEUTRAL5–15% cashHedges and pillars at strategic baseline.
RISK-OFF15–30% cashHedges sized up to 3–4 slots; tilt toward Defense, cash, and hedge equity.

When deterministic defensive signals fire, the ceiling of the current band extends — Extension (QQQ >+8% above its 200-day MA, or weekly RSI ≥ 70) adds +10pp, Stress (VIX >+25% vs its 200-day, or HY spreads +50bps in 20 days) adds +10pp, and Event risk (a binary macro event within 3 sessions) adds +5pp — hard-capped at 30% of NAV. The floor never moves: the escalator grants permission to defend, never a mandate to sell, and cash above the band with no active signal is rejected in post-validation regardless of the model's reasoning.

Current regime: NEUTRAL · cash target 14% · “Hawkish hold + Taiwan escalation confirm NEUTRAL; cash near band top at 14%

§6.3 — CONVICTION

A score is the output of a written thesis, not the input to a sort.

Every candidate gets a 0–100 conviction score derived from four questions the agent must answer in writing: why this is a durable 20–30 year compounder; what named policy or macro tailwind is at its back; who is confirming it with capital; and what, specifically, would break the thesis. Names below 60 are not investable. Names at 60 and above are sized in proportion to (score − 60), subject to every cap in the ledger above.

Generic theses are refused mechanically at the buy seam: “strong fundamentals,” “compelling AI exposure,” a bare score, or a doc-pointer gets the open dropped and a refusal row appended to the public journal. If the agent cannot articulate the durable business and name its tailwind, the position cannot enter the book.


§6.5d — THE LOCK

A 30-day lock protects the book from its own manager.

New positions carry a 30-day floor on trims and closes. Inside that first month, only a true regime change, a real break in the company's thesis, or a policy shock that postdates the entry can shrink the position — not flow softening, not score drift, not a shinier candidate on the watchlist. The lock is mechanical: it sits at every sell-emission seam, and an override requires citing one of the named paths, which is then journaled.

Refusals are public. When the lock (or the named-flow gate above) blocks an action the model wanted, the refusal lands in the journal with the same prominence as a trade — “checked, nothing to enforce” is itself evidence the rules run on every decision.


§10.8 — THE CADENCE

One deep decision a quarter. Sentinels watching every day.

A 1+ month hold horizon doesn't want a scheduled full model run every week — most weekly reviews re-affirm the same book, which is decision cost without decision value. The scheduled deep run is quarterly; between audits a sentinel layer watches continuously and wakes the model only when something actually changed:

Quarterly audit — OpusFirst live session of the quarter, 10:00 ETThe only scheduled ticket-emitting run: scoring refresh → regime call → per-position briefings → strategist call → mechanical caps → tickets. Fills land 11:00 the same session, at prices the model could actually have transacted at.
Regime refresh — SonnetMon 10:00 ET, weeklyStandalone regime read (label, cash target, hedge posture, tilts) so the posture inputs never go stale between audits. Also re-runs whenever a new research brief ships or a macro print misses consensus. No tickets.
Midweek check — SonnetWed 18:00 ETObservation only. Re-briefs every position against the week's regime state; flags broken theses to the autopilot. No tickets.
Daily scans — HaikuM–F, open + closeCheap news/sentiment triage across the held book — flags escalate to the autopilot when enough of them stack up. Never trades directly.
Mechanical sentinelsIntraday + daily, $0Price shocks (≥5% on 3× volume, every 30 min), bearish policy hits, macro prints vs consensus, and pre-qualified entry candidates (conviction ≥ 70, liquidity-screened) — pure data checks, no model calls.
Autopilot — Opus, gatedEvent-drivenEvery escalation trips a Sonnet actionability gate; only if it passes does a scoped Opus patch run and trade — defensive moves on held names, or at most one new-name entry per week. Rate-limited (12h cooldown, 3 fires/week) and the §2 caps still bind.

§5.1 — THE BENCHMARK

The S&P 500 is not the benchmark.

The book is measured against a custom civilizational-builder basket: 25% per pillar, equal weight within each pillar, rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar quarter, computed on the same price-return basis as the paper book. The constituent list is versioned and append-only. Beating SPY with a defense-and-uranium book in a tech rally proves little; beating the builders it actually competes with proves the selection.

The full track record, benchmark series, and CSV/JSON exports

§13.6 — THE RECEIPTS

Don't trust the summary. Check the ledger.

Every regime call, strategist run, scoring delta, refusal, and trade ticket is appended to a public journal whose entries are hash-chained — editing any historical entry breaks its fingerprint and every link after it, and the chain is re-verified on a public endpoint. The reasoning is timestamped before the market opens on it; the costs of producing it are published down to the model call.

Ledger verified — chain intact81 runs · $20.35 model spend, trailing 30d

THE OPERATOR — WHO RUNS THIS

One human, in a supervisory seat. The AI makes the calls.

Capital Compass is run by a single independent operator who built the system, pays its API and infrastructure bills, and maintains STRATEGY.md — the investment policy the code enforces. The operator does not pick stocks, size positions, or override individual decisions: every buy, trim, and exit is made by the AI strategist inside the mechanical caps above, and lands in the public journal either way.

The human role is supervision, not management: reviewing the weekly tripwires (§7), authoring the standing research brief the regime call reads, and editing the strategy document — through version control, in public — when the policy itself needs to change. Run failures page the operator; they never silently rewrite the record. No client money is involved, nothing is sold, and there is nothing to subscribe to but the reading.

The Flagship is a paper portfolio — no real capital is at risk and results are hypothetical. Capital Compass AI publishes research and reasoning, not financial advice. Past performance, real or simulated, does not guarantee future results.