Own what capital,
resources, and policy
are flowing into.
One paper book. Eighteen-to-twenty names. Each position cites one named flow — a sovereign-wealth 13F delta, a hyperscaler capex line, an enacted policy. Held while the flow keeps flowing. Exited when it shifts, not when the price moves.
Started Apr 1, 2026 at $100,000 paper. Reasoning timestamped before market open. Fees: $0 (paper). Benchmarked against SPY (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100).
Real-asset hedges bid into FOMC — gold up, oil softening on a ceasefire flicker; AI-compute contracts intact but multiples re-rating. Built the missing oil+gold hedge layer.
Neutral regime, defensive tilt — the Fed put is out of the money into Warsh's first FOMC with 4.2% CPI, and the extension escalator (QQQ…
+18% >200d, wRSI 70.7) holds cash at the 14% target. I made three moves. (1) Closed BWXT — the only clean break: score 55 below floor, broken verdict, unlock B active, entry trigger never met. (2) Added the missing real-asset hedge layer the brief demands: XOM (5.5%, integrated supermajor — the cleanest Hormuz/oil hedge) and NEM (4.0%, gold miner — frozen-Fed stagflation hedge that rallied +6.8% today as oil sold off).
The regime call
Neutral with a defensive tilt, per the macro digest and brief. Credit and vol are calm (HY OAS 2.78 below 90d avg, VIX 17.68) — a risk-on undertone — but the extension escalator binds: QQQ +18.1% above its 200d with wRSI 70.66 (overbought, ≥70 fires), which holds cash off the floor at the 14% target (upper-half of the neutral band, ceiling escalated to 25%).
The flow read
Real-asset hedges bid into FOMC — gold up, oil softening on a ceasefire flicker; AI-compute contracts intact but multiples re-rating. Built the missing oil+gold hedge layer.
What it refused
The 30-day conviction lock refused trim KTOS this run — the model wanted out early; the discipline gate said no. Refusals are journaled with the same prominence as trades.
The week, on schedule.
Most days are idle by design. The week observes; Monday decides.
Read the next paper.
One email a week, after the strategist call. Free, paper-mode, append-only. No tracking, no upsell.