Flagship · Bulletin

Macro rationale

Holding NEUTRAL. The wake is a sentiment event, not a capital-flow event. The named trigger — Amodei's "We Must Pace the Frontier" (Sep 12) endorsed by Altman and Musk — moved prices hard (AEIS -11.5%, GEV -8.5%, ASML -7.1%, MU -5.4%, NVDA -3.5%) but transmitted into zero capex cuts: the paper's own hard-transmission test confirms big-four 2026 capex is still being revised UP (~$725B, 2027 approaching $1T), Amazon reaffirmed $220B for 2026 on Sep 11, and AI-linked credit has not widened. Credit is the tell and it is calm: HY OAS 2.70 vs a 2.73 90d SMA, IG ~80-90bp, VIX 17.84 below its 200d. No recession signal; GDPNow ~4.75%, NFP +162k. The hawkish leg is real — 10y real 2.55% (up from 2.43%), a ~90%-priced Sep 16 hike, WTI $97 with Hormuz disrupted — which is why cash stays at the top half of the band (17.66%, above the 17% working reserve, extension escalator active on QQQ +8.29% vs 200d). Breadth is thin (38% of sectors >50d, equal-weight -1.28pp 1m) and rotation is exactly where the paper says: XLE +7.87pp leading, ITA -11pp lagging. That combination — strong economy, calm credit, restrictive discount rate, broken AI-equity positioning — is textbook defensively-tilted NEUTRAL, not risk-off. I split the difference with the paper on one point: I accept Compute & AI underweight as a no-add instruction (I am adding nothing in compute and holding six names at reduced, price-decayed weights), but I do not sell an intact EUV monopoly or a three-player HBM oligopoly into a sentiment drawdown that broke no funder. Where I lean in is the paper's own preferred expression — own the buildout through power, not through AI-equity valuation.

Thesis

One ticket pair, funded internally, cash unchanged at 17.66%. TRIM SCCO -2.2pp (8.30→6.10) and ADD GEV +2.2pp (4.92→7.12). Everything else is a verbatim hold at entry weight, delta 0. No exits, no opens (the fire lists no entry candidates, and at 16 positions the book is at the §2 floor). Why this pair: SCCO is a profit-rebalance, not a thesis call — the position briefing flags it has more than doubled from its 4.03% original entry to 9.17% live on price alone, with copper at an all-time high and the 2026 raise (917K tons) and $20.5B Tia Maria/Los Chancas plan already in the tape. Trimming an appreciated commodity hedge at a record spot price is risk management; SCCO stays a full §5.3 hedge slot at 6.10% alongside NEM. GEV is the mirror image: the AI-pacing story knocked it -8.5% to $874.76, now 2.3% below its 200dma, while the business accelerated — H1 2026 FCF $9.9B versus $1.2B a year ago, FY FCF guidance raised, $176B backlog, heavy-duty turbines effectively sold out through 2030 with 10-20% price realization. A call to slow frontier model training does not cancel a turbine slot booked for 2029 delivery. This is the paper's own instruction executed literally: own the AI buildout through power, not through AI-equity valuation, inside an Energy & Grid overweight strengthened by $97 WTI. Cost accepted: AI-load look-through rises to ~31.4% on intent basis — above the 30% warning line, under the 35% hard cap. Named and owned.

Reflection

An essay repriced the AI complex without moving a dollar of capex. No funder broke. Only trade: rotate a record-priced copper hedge into the power franchise the same fear mispriced.

Eleventh straight wake fired by price, but the shape finally differs: this drawdown has a named cause (the Sep 12 pacing essays) that is verifiably NOT a capital-flow event — Amazon reaffirmed $220B two days earlier and HY OAS did not twitch. The useful discipline is separating a narrative shock from a funder break, and the tell is credit, not the tape. I also note I am deliberately pushing AI-load from 29.2% to ~31.4% — above the warning, under the 35% cap — by adding GEV. Second run running the cluster climbs. If it reaches 33% I should cure it by trimming a compute satellite rather than ref

Positions (16)

• GEVGE Vernovaenergy

  hold4.92%61
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Gas-turbine and grid franchise with genuine pricing power: heavy-duty turbines effectively sold out through 2030, 10-20% price realization on new orders, 48.4% ROIC, net cash (-2.3x), share count -3.2% YoY. Named flow: $176B backlog, H1-2026 FCF $9.9B vs $1.2B prior year with FY FCF guidance raised (Jul-22 filing); Norway GPFG added post-spin; hyperscaler power procurement on 2030-35 delivery hori

  Unwind

  Gas-turbine backlog cancellation or a NAMED hyperscaler power-capex cut (not a model-pacing essay); wind-segment losses widening enough to consume gas-segment profit; or the order book ceasing to convert to FCF — H1 FCF of $9.9B is the live refutation of that today.

  Catalyst

  Q3 2026 earnings ~Oct 21: backlog conversion and FY FCF guidance reaffirmation; further turbine slot reservations from hyperscaler PPAs.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,050.00 base

  $1,300.00 bull — Backlog converts at the guided 10-20% price realization, FY FCF guide raised again, and grid/HVDC awards accelerate as data-center interconnect stays the binding constraint.

  $700.00 bear — A genuine hyperscaler power-capex cut follows the pacing rhetoric, turbine slots get deferred, and wind losses widen enough to eat gas-segment profit.

• SCCOSouthern Copperenergy

  hold8.30%67
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  §5.3 tail-risk hedge slot: lowest-cost major copper producer with the industry's largest reserve base, 67.6% gross margin, FCF+ with a large dividend, Grupo Mexico control enforcing capital discipline. Named flow: H1-2026 operating cash flow +116.9% YoY to $3.68B, 2026 production guidance raised to 917K tons, and the $20.5B investment plan with $10.3B to Tia Maria/Los Chancas — the exact permittin

  Unwind

  Copper price collapse breaking the structural deficit thesis; Tia Maria / Los Chancas permitting reversal; a dividend cut signalling balance-sheet stress; or a Peruvian/Mexican tax or royalty regime change confiscating the cost advantage.

  Catalyst

  Q3 2026 production/cost report against the raised 917K-ton guide; Tia Maria construction milestones.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $210.00 base

  $265.00 bull — Structural copper deficit persists as grid and data-center demand builds, Tia Maria advances on schedule, and the raised 917K-ton guide is beaten.

  $145.00 bear — Copper mean-reverts from the record as Chinese demand disappoints, ore grades keep slipping, and the dividend is pared to fund the $20.5B plan.

• MUMicron Technologycompute

  hold3.38%87
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Only US-domiciled leading-edge DRAM/HBM franchise: 72.5% gross / 65.4% operating margin, 48.8% ROIC, net cash (-0.3x), 31.8% FCF margin — a three-player HBM oligopoly after two decades of cycle abuse. Named flow: ~16 multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements worth ~$100B of contracted demand, the Anthropic multi-year supply agreement, record August DRAM/NAND spot prices, and Amazon's $220B 2026 cap

  Unwind

  Erosion of the SCA contract book or customer deposits returned; HBM oversupply as 2027 capacity lands; CXMT converting its ~11% DRAM share into leading-edge nodes; or gross margin rolling back under 50% on a pricing break.

  Catalyst

  Sep 30 FY-Q4 earnings — HBM booking disclosure and FY2027 sold-out commentary is the hard thesis checkpoint.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,100.00 base

  $1,450.00 bull — Sep 30 print confirms HBM4 sold out through 2027 at record DRAM pricing; the SCA book converts and memory holds oligopoly discipline through the capacity add.

  $650.00 bear — 2027 capacity lands into a pacing-driven order pause, spot DRAM rolls over, and the cycle re-rates the whole 200% YoY revenue base as peak earnings.

• TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingcompute

  hold5.11%87
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Effective foundry monopoly at <=3nm — every meaningful AI accelerator routes through it. >50% gross margin (Sep-8 print confirmed an all-time-high gross profit margin), prodigious FCF, famously disciplined capex, and a management record of never over-building into a cycle. Named flow: Apple A20 Pro confirms the 2nm ramp is live and on schedule; CoWoS advanced packaging oversubscribed at 30-40 week

  Unwind

  Gross margin sustained <50% for two consecutive quarters; a rival closing the leading-edge yield gap; a Taiwan-strait event Arizona capacity cannot offset; or the 2nm ramp slipping on yield.

  Catalyst

  Monthly revenue prints and the October Q3 call — 2nm ramp commentary and 2027 capex guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $410.00 base

  $510.00 bull — 2nm ramps at high yield with pricing power intact, CoWoS stays oversubscribed, and foundry captures a rising share of the ~$1T 2027 AI capex pool.

  $260.00 bear — Taiwan-strait risk premium re-rates the ADR, or a pacing-driven accelerator order pause pushes utilization below the >50% gross-margin floor.

• NVDANVIDIAcompute

  hold3.16%74
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  AI-accelerator franchise with the CUDA software moat: 74.2% gross margin, 77.0% ROIC, fortress net cash (-0.1x), share count -1.3% YoY, and developer lock-in no ASIC rival has replicated in a decade. Named flow: ~$725B big-four 2026 capex anchored on Blackwell/Rubin with 2027 approaching $1T, $279B of supply commitments disclosed on the Aug-26 10-Q, and CoreWeave's Physical AI expansion.

  Unwind

  Data-center revenue YoY <20% for two consecutive quarters; gross margin breaking below the guided 71-72% floor because memory cost cannot be passed through; a named hyperscaler displacing CUDA at scale with in-house silicon; or a compute export-control shock removing a material revenue block.

  Catalyst

  FY-Q3 earnings ~Nov 25: data-center growth rate and the gross-margin floor under record memory input costs.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $255.00 base

  $320.00 bull — 2027 capex lands near $1T, Rubin ramps on schedule, and gross margin holds the 71-72% floor while data-center revenue reaccelerates.

  $155.00 bear — Pacing rhetoric converts into real order deferrals, memory cost compresses margin through the floor, and a ~5% 10y de-rates the multiple further.

• ASMLASML Holdingcompute

  hold2.59%64
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  EUV / High-NA monopoly — the single most irreplaceable tool in advanced semis, with no commercial-scale alternative at 2nm, a multi-year backlog, ~50% gross margin and an installed-base service annuity that cushions the order cycle. Named flow: 2026 revenue guidance raised to EUR 43-45B; High-NA partnerships with Samsung and Intel live; Norway GPFG holds and the TSMC/Samsung/Intel 2026-27 EUV orde

  Unwind

  Book-to-bill <0.7 for three consecutive quarters; a Dutch/US export-control tightening removing a material share of the orderbook; or a credible non-EUV patterning path emerging at 2nm.

  Catalyst

  Q3 2026 bookings print in October — the only datapoint that can actually confirm or refute an order-visibility break.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,900.00 base

  $2,400.00 bull — October bookings hold above 1.0 book-to-bill, High-NA converts Intel/Samsung orders, and the EUR 43-45B guide is reaffirmed — the AI-slowdown discount unwinds.

  $1,250.00 bear — Bookings roll under 0.7 for consecutive quarters as WFE buyers pause on pacing rhetoric, and China export controls take another slice of the orderbook.

• AVGOBroadcomcompute

  hold2.56%71
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Custom-silicon ASIC leader (~60-70% share) plus VMware infrastructure-software lock-in: 68.6% gross margin, 44.5% FCF margin, 13.0x interest coverage, $7B+ annual buyback and a serial dividend record, under Hock Tan's proven capital-allocation discipline. Named flow: Google TPU multi-generation, Meta MTIA and Anthropic ASIC programs; Amazon's $220B 2026 capex commitment (Sep 11) feeds the same cus

  Unwind

  AI custom-chip revenue stalling below a ~$25B annual run-rate; full hyperscaler in-sourcing displacing the ASIC design franchise across multiple named accounts; or VMware renewal churn breaking the software annuity.

  Catalyst

  FY-Q1 earnings ~Dec 10 — AI semiconductor run-rate and FY2027 custom-silicon bookings.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $400.00 base

  $520.00 bull — FY2027 custom AI silicon roughly doubles as Google/Meta/Anthropic programs ramp, and VMware renewals hold the 44.5% FCF margin.

  $260.00 bear — A named hyperscaler pulls an ASIC program in-house, AI revenue stalls under a $25B run-rate, and the debt-funded capex channel tightens.

• ANETArista Networkscompute

  hold2.28%65
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Durable hyperscaler-networking franchise and a consistent share-gainer since 2004: 63.5% gross margin, 43.9% operating margin, net cash (-2.9x), and the single-image EOS software moat that makes rip-and-replace economically irrational. Named flow: H1-2026 operating cash flow $2.78B with FCF +50% YoY on 37.7% revenue growth; Microsoft and Meta named as the largest customers funding that growth; AI

  Unwind

  Microsoft+Meta combined concentration >50% with revenue decelerating; Spectrum-X or whitebox displacing EOS in a NAMED hyperscaler footprint; or gross margin breaking below ~60% on price competition.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 4 — AI back-end Ethernet win disclosure and 2027 revenue framing.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $185.00 base

  $240.00 bull — AI back-end Ethernet share keeps compounding off Microsoft/Meta clusters, FCF growth stays above 40%, and EOS extends into new hyperscaler footprints.

  $110.00 bear — Spectrum-X or whitebox takes a named hyperscaler footprint while customer concentration passes 50% into a decelerating capex quarter.

• NEMNewmont Corporationenergy

  hold6.92%83
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  §5.3 tail-risk equity hedge: largest gold producer with tier-1 long-life assets, 54.4% operating and 45.4% FCF margin, 26.8% ROIC, net cash (-0.2x), share count -5.3% YoY, and the Nevada JV dispute with Barrick resolved. Named flow: central-bank gold accumulation with spot ~$4,408 into a Hormuz-disrupted oil shock and a ~90%-priced Fed hike — the hedge is doing exactly the job the slot exists for.

  Unwind

  Cost overruns breaking FCF and the dividend — the 13% YoY production decline and AISC to ~$1,680/oz are the live version of this; a durability break would be FCF margin collapsing from 45.4% with the dividend cut, which has not happened.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Oct 22 — AISC stabilization against the cut 5.26M oz 2026 guide is the checkpoint.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $140.00 base

  $185.00 bull — Gold holds above $4,000 on central-bank buying and the oil/geopolitical tail, while AISC stabilizes and the 45.4% FCF margin funds buybacks.

  $85.00 bear — AISC keeps climbing past $1,680/oz as production slides to 5.26M oz, FCF compresses, and a Hormuz resolution collapses the gold risk premium.

• KTOSKratos Defensedefense

  hold11.41%64
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  Scarce non-prime supplier of attritable airframes (XQ-58A Valkyrie), hypersonics and turbine engines, with a decade of embedded program positions the primes cannot easily displace and vertical propulsion integration. Named flow: DoD MACH-TB 2.0 $1.45B IDIQ ceiling, Project Helios, USMC Valkyrie mods, $55M+ of new awards this quarter, and the FY2027 request's ~$103B autonomy line plus ~$70.5B munit

  Unwind

  Backlog or contract cancellations; margin failing to inflect through the drone ramp with FCF staying negative through FY2027 (FCF margin is -31.9% today and share count +21.7% YoY — this is the live risk); or a reconciliation failure that strands the autonomy line.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 3 — the FCF inflection and dilution pace; December 11 CR expiry and the FY2027 reconciliation vote.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $70.00 base

  $100.00 bull — Drone ramp crosses scale, FCF turns positive, and the FY2027 autonomy/munitions lines get appropriated after the midterms.

  $38.00 bear — FCF stays negative through FY2027 with continued 20%+ share issuance while the CR freeze on new starts delays Valkyrie production-rate increases.

• HEIHEICOdefense

  hold10.23%68
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Defense/aero aftermarket compounder and a textbook 20-30 year franchise — the Mendelson family has owned and run it since 1957, compounding FCF above 20% through disciplined tuck-in acquisitions funded internally, 40.3% gross and 24.1% operating margin, 17.9% ROIC, conservative 1.6x net debt. Named flow: Q3 beat with FSG $929M vs $864M consensus and ETG $460M vs $396M; NDAA mandatory funding plus

  Unwind

  Organic growth decelerating below 6% WITH margin compression; a value-destroying large acquisition breaking the tuck-in discipline; a Mendelson management succession failure; or a sustained forward multiple above 50x with growth slowing.

  Catalyst

  Q4/FY earnings ~Nov 26 — organic growth rate and the pace of tuck-in deployment.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $360.00 base

  $440.00 bull — Aftermarket MRO demand and NDAA-funded parts keep organic growth double-digit while tuck-ins compound FCF above 20%, re-expanding the multiple.

  $230.00 bear — A 50x+ multiple compresses into a near-5% 10y while organic growth slows below 6%, or a large out-of-pattern acquisition breaks the tuck-in discipline.

• LLYEli Lillybiology

  hold6.66%74
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Premier pharma compounder: 84.1% gross margin, 38.8% operating margin, 62.3% ROIC, share count -1.2% YoY, and a $27B manufacturing capacity moat rivals cannot replicate quickly on top of the tirzepatide franchise. Named flow: Sep-8 confirmation that Lilly retook the US GLP-1 script-share lead from Novo; oral orforglipron approved Apr 2026; immunology now $2.6B (+9% YoY) via the DICE/Morphic acquis

  Unwind

  Tirzepatide US script share falling >5pts to Novo over two quarters; retatrutide Phase 3 disappointing on safety or durability; IRA/MFP negotiation reaching the GLP-1 class with a punitive price; or the $27B capex build failing to convert to supply.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 4 — Zepbound/Mounjaro script share and orforglipron launch trajectory; retatrutide Phase 3 readouts.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,250.00 base

  $1,500.00 bull — Orforglipron scales the oral GLP-1 market, retatrutide Phase 3 delivers, and the $27B capacity build converts share leadership into durable supply advantage.

  $800.00 bear — Novo retakes script share, retatrutide disappoints on tolerability, and IRA price negotiation reaches the GLP-1 class.

• VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticalsbiology

  hold6.02%82
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Durable biology compounder: the cystic-fibrosis monopoly (Trikafta/Alyftrek) is a self-funding cash engine on 86.2% gross margin and 30.6% FCF margin, net cash (-1.2x), with patent protection into the late 2030s. Named flow: FY guidance raised to $13.10-13.20B; Casgevy sales +78% QoQ to $76M at partner CRISPR with an FDA pediatric label expansion; Journavx (suzetrigine) opening the non-opioid pain

  Unwind

  The CF franchise eroding faster than non-CF revenue can replace it; the Crinetics integration destroying value; a suzetrigine commercial failure removing the diversification leg; or a CF patent challenge succeeding.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 3 — Journavx launch traction and Casgevy reimbursement conversions against the raised $13.10-13.20B guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $560.00 base

  $680.00 bull — Journavx scales into the non-opioid pain market, Casgevy reimbursement broadens, and non-CF revenue proves the franchise is more than one drug family.

  $380.00 bear — Journavx launch stalls on payer access, Casgevy uptake plateaus, and a near-5% 10y compresses the multiple on a slowing 13.6% revenue grower.

• ARGXargenxbiology

  hold3.79%71
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  The Vyvgart / Vyvgart Hytrulo (efgartigimod) FcRn autoimmune franchise: first-mover platform with a decade of indication runway, commercial-stage, high-margin and net cash, so it self-funds its own pipeline without the rate vise. Named flow: FDA gMG approval expanded to all serotypes including seronegative; the Forte Biosciences acquisition (FB102, anti-CD122) completed this month; Sanofi's rilipr

  Unwind

  Vyvgart revenue growth stalling; a pipeline indication failure in myositis or Sjogren's; a competitor FcRn entrant (J&J nipocalimab, UCB rozanolixizumab) taking measurable share; or the Forte integration turning into a cash drag without a clinical proof point.

  Catalyst

  Q3 results — Vyvgart Hytrulo prefilled-syringe conversion rate and myositis/Sjogren's registrational updates.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $950.00 base

  $1,150.00 bull — Hytrulo subcutaneous conversion accelerates, myositis and Sjogren's read out positive, and CIDP share compounds after Sanofi's exit from the indication.

  $620.00 bear — Nipocalimab takes measurable FcRn share, a registrational indication misses, and Forte integration spend drags the self-funding model.

• AEISAdvanced Energy Industriescompute

  hold2.21%69
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Starter (§6.6). Advanced Energy: 45-year incumbent in precision RF/DC plasma power delivery, designed into etch and deposition process recipes at the major WFE OEMs — requalifying a power supply means requalifying the recipe, which is the switching cost. Net cash (-0.1x), 15.5x interest coverage, 20 consecutive dividends. Named flow: Q2 revenue +35.3% YoY with record semiconductor-equipment sales

  Unwind

  Gross margin sustained below 36% on price competition from MKS/Comet/Delta (38.9% today); semiconductor-segment revenue declining two consecutive quarters as the WFE recovery stalls; or the data-center power leg failing to convert to bookings. Scale-in criterion: data-center book-to-bill >1.2 with confirmed WFE recovery. Kill: the 36% margin break.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 2 — data-center book-to-bill and semiconductor segment sequential trend.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $320.00 base

  $420.00 bull — WFE recovery confirms, data-center book-to-bill clears 1.2, and the 30%+ revenue growth with record semi sales re-rates a name now 15.5% below its 200dma.

  $190.00 bear — MKS/Comet price competition drags gross margin under 36% while AI-capex caution stalls the WFE recovery and the semi segment declines two quarters running.

• BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc. Common Stockbiology

  hold1.23%43
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Growth-starter sleeve (§2). Origin platform for base editing (David Liu science, Broad-licensed): single-base correction without double-strand breaks — the most differentiated editing chemistry in the field. Named flow: $1.21B cash funding the runway to mid-2029 (extended from 2028), BEAM-302 AATD trial dosing completed this month, and ARK accumulating on the drawdown. Sized as optionality, not co

  Unwind

  Named kill criteria, unchanged: hepatotoxicity or an off-target signal in BEAM-302, a discounted equity raise, or the cash runway breaking before the AATD proof point. None of the three has fired — the sub-60 score was known and priced at entry 22 days ago, so it is not new information.

  Catalyst

  BEAM-302 Phase 1/2 AATD dose-escalation data; investor event ahead.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $45.00 base

  $80.00 bull — BEAM-302 shows durable AAT correction with clean liver safety, validating in-vivo base editing and pulling a partner with real upfront capital.

  $12.00 bear — Hepatotoxicity or an off-target signal in BEAM-302, or a discounted raise before the AATD proof point at a ~5% 10y.

Warnings

• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: GEV
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: MU
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: NVDA
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: AVGO
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: ANET
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: NEM
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: KTOS
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: HEI
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: LLY
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: VRTX
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: AEIS
• §2 cap re-applied after pillar tilt: BEAM

Conviction-lock actions

No conviction-lock refusals or overrides this run.

Cost breakdown

Per-call cost computed from cost.js pricing constants (Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5). Cache-read tokens billed at 10% of input. See Cost & ROI for the rolling 30-day ledger.