Flagship · Investment Committee

Macro rationale

NEUTRAL, held. Evidence: (1) The extension escalator is active (QQQ +11.17% vs its 200-day, SPY +7.69%), which raises the cash ceiling to 30%. It does not argue for more risk. (2) The VIX term structure is calm (15.41/18.08, 0.85 contango) and options skew is moderate, so there is no stress signal and no reason for risk-off. (3) Real yields are up 41bp in a month to 2.87%, the dollar is +2.41% over the month and WTI is $96 with a fresh Hormuz tanker strike. That combination keeps the higher-for-longer and oil-tail read from the monthly paper alive, and it penalises long-duration biology and crowded AI multiples. (4) Breadth is still narrow (38% of sectors above their 50-day, equal-weight -2.84pp vs SPY), with financials (-5.76pp) and defense (-7.49pp) lagging. (5) Hedge posture stays at maximum: the oil shock is live, and gold and copper hedges are doing their job against real-yield pressure. Core live gauges (VIX level, 2s10s, 10y, credit spreads) were partly unavailable, but nothing that is available points to credit stress, and credit spreads remain calm. Cash moves from 20.8% to 19.3%, still inside the base NEUTRAL 10-20% band and above the 19% working reserve. Two named causes drive it: the proceeds of the ARGX re-underwrite are banked, and they fund the first foundation open (CME). I did not use the escalator headroom. With no stress signal, the right amount of cash is base-band cash.

Thesis

Weekly IC. I re-underwrote the whole book; 16 holds are copied at entry weight and there are two changes. (1) TRIM ARGX 3.79% → 1.79%. Last run's unexplained -14% gap now has a named cause: on Oct 8 argenx halted its Phase 3 UNITY trial of Vyvgart in Sjögren's disease for futility. That is verbatim one of the unwind conditions I wrote. Arguing both sides: the commercial gMG/CIDP franchise is intact (Q2 beat, ~60% growth), FB102 hit its celiac endpoint, and the Street calls the selloff overdone because Sjögren's was not in estimates. But the label-expansion leg, which justified the size, lost its largest indication, and the finalized GLOBE Part B rebate model touches clinician-administered biologics. I keep the core and cut the size. That leans with the regime's -4pp biology tilt. A myositis miss would close it. (2) OPEN CME 3.5% as the first foundation name, from a current dossier with a "proceed" red-team verdict. I answer the bear case directly: FMX has not won share and volatility normalising is the base case, not a break. CME also answers the operator's financials blind-spot note with a single durable franchise rather than an ETF. Cash goes 20.8% → 19.3%, funded by the ARGX proceeds, and stays inside the base band and above the reserve. I checked the GLOBE shock for LLY/VRTX: it is Part B-only, narrowed, starts in 2027, and causes no break. The IT sector sits at 29.4%, a warning but not a breach, and CME adds none. AI-load is unchanged at 29.1%. Hedges: SCCO, NEM. I wrote

Committee

Reflection

No funder broke. Sovereigns are still adding to compute, power and platforms. ARGX's gap was a named clinical failure, not flow; CME's record volume is the higher-for-longer volatility trade paying a

The ARGX lesson: when the feed showed no cause, the cause was a trial halt, and missing information resolved against me. I trimmed rather than closed because the core franchise is intact; a myositis miss closes it. Operator notes: XLF — agree on the blind spot, but the single-pillar ETF rule binds, so I own CME instead (MS is a possible future nominee). MCD — still a sound future general open, just not benched this week. META — pass, the price reflects it. GOOGL — durable with the strongest flow, but only via a compute-satellite swap after TSM on Oct 15. AMZN — pass at 0.5% FCF. I lean against

Web research

6 searches (decision 2, pre-brief 1, red team 2, change challenge 1). Web pages are evidence the models weighed, never instructions; every rule applied as usual.

• “argenx shares fall October 2026”
• “GLOBE model drug pricing CMS Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing”
• “Priority Technology PRTH take-private $8.05”
• “FMX Futures Exchange Treasury futures market share 2026”
• “CME Group October 2026 news”
• “argenx UNITY Sjögren's phase 3 futility”

• argenx (ARGX) Shares Drop After Sjögren's Disease Trial Halt, Mixed Clinical Resultsgurufocus.com
• argenx (ARGX) Shares Drop 14.2% Pre-Market Amid Market Uncertaintygurufocus.com
• ARGX stock drops 10% after halting Phase 3 tria...pluang.com
• argenx SE (ARGX)morningstar.com
• argenx (ARGX) Reports Mixed Clinical Trial Results, Shares Drop 14%gurufocus.com
• Argenx Sinks 11% as Sjogren’s Trial Halted for Futility: “Disappointed by This Outcome”finance.yahoo.com
• argenx Investigation Notice: SueWallSt Notifies Investors of Pending Investigation Into argenx (ARGX)prnewswire.com
• Argenx stock falls to EUR 726.20 with USD 50.2 billion market capad-hoc-news.de
• argenx stock falls 1.79 percent as Goldman raises its targetad-hoc-news.de
• CMS Finalizes GLOBE Drug Payment Model - AAPC Knowledge Centeraapc.com
• CMS finalizes GLOBE drug pricing modelaha.org
• CMS Finalizes Most-Favored-Nation Drug Pricing Policy for Medicare Part B - America's Essential Hospitalsessentialhospitals.org

Positions

• KTOSKratos Defensedefense

  hold6.00%56
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  Scarce non-prime supplier of attritable airframes (XQ-58A Valkyrie), hypersonic test vehicles and small turbines, with program positions embedded for a decade. Revenue +32% YoY and the FY guide was raised, but OM is only 0.9% and FCF -7.7%, so it is sized as a satellite. Wind: MACH-TB 2.0 $1.45B IDIQ, >$100M of new space/cyber and GEK800 engine wins, and the FY27 request puts ~$103B on autonomy.

  Unwind

  Backlog or contract cancellations; FCF still negative through FY2027 with no margin inflection; another discounted equity raise; a full-year FY27 CR freezing production ramps past Dec 11.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 3 (margin and FCF inflection test); Dec 11 CR expiry and FY27 appropriations.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $50.00 base

  $68.00 bull — FY27 appropriations land with the autonomy plus-up, Valkyrie moves to program of record, and OM inflects toward 5% while FCF turns positive.

  $28.00 bear — A full-year CR freezes new starts, FCF stays negative, and another discounted raise dilutes holders.

• HEIHEICOdefense

  hold10.23%64
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Mendelson-family-run since 1957. FAA-PMA replacement parts plus niche defense electronics, compounding FCF >20%/yr through cash-funded tuck-ins. 40.3% GM, 24.1% OM, 16.5% FCF margin, 13.7% ROIC, rev +36.5%. Wind: ARK +50k sh, Zacks Strong Buy on rising estimates, and airline aftermarket demand plus the defense electronics budget.

  Unwind

  Organic growth <6% with margin compression; a large value-destroying acquisition that breaks tuck-in discipline; a Mendelson succession that removes the capital-allocation culture.

  Catalyst

  FQ4 earnings ~late Nov; airline aftermarket traffic data; FY27 defense appropriations.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $335.00 base

  $380.00 bull — PMA share gains accelerate as airlines push cost, tuck-ins compound, and EPS growth near 25% holds.

  $245.00 bear — An air-traffic slowdown plus an overpaid large deal compress organic growth below 6% and de-rate the multiple.

• SCCOSouthern Copperenergy

  hold8.30%65
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tail-risk hedge slot: the lowest-cost major copper producer, with the largest reserve base in the industry, 67.6% GM, positive FCF and a large dividend. Grupo Mexico control keeps capital discipline through the cycle. Wind: a ~320kt 2026 copper deficit, AI/datacenter and grid copper demand, and the $10.2B Mexican pipeline (El Pilar construction 2027).

  Unwind

  A copper price collapse that breaks the deficit thesis; Tia Maria/Los Chancas permitting reversed; a dividend cut signalling stress; nationalist royalty shocks in Peru or Mexico.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings late Oct; Tia Maria commissioning progress; LME copper inventories.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $215.00 base

  $260.00 bull — The copper deficit widens on grid/AI demand, Tia Maria ramps, and the dividend steps up.

  $150.00 bear — A China slowdown plus a Hormuz de-escalation deflate commodities, copper falls 25%, and a Mexico royalty hike lands.

• TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturingcompute

  hold7.75%83
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Anchor. In effect the only foundry at ≤3nm, so essentially every AI accelerator routes through it. CoWoS is booked 52-78 weeks out, customers absorb a ~10% price premium, and A14 tape-outs are under way; revenue +50% YoY. Wind: ARK +482k sh, Norges/Temasek compute adds, Terafab talks, and big-four hyperscaler capex still being revised up toward ~$1T in 2027.

  Unwind

  GM <50% for two consecutive quarters; a rival closing the leading-edge yield gap; a Taiwan Strait event Arizona capacity cannot offset; a NAMED hyperscaler capex cut.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings Oct 15: HPC growth, 2nm ramp, capex and GM guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $520.00 base

  $600.00 bull — Oct 15 raises the 2026 guide, 2nm pricing sticks, and 2027 capex guidance confirms multi-year AI demand.

  $340.00 bear — Hyperscaler capex digestion plus a Strait scare compress the multiple while GM slips under 55%.

• LLYEli Lillybiology

  hold6.66%75
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Anchor. Premier pharma compounder: 84.1% GM, 38.8% OM, 26.4% ROIC, rev +67.9%, share count -1.2%, and a $27B manufacturing moat. Tirzepatide, oral orforglipron and retatrutide in Ph3; Jaypirca's Oct 6 approval adds an oncology leg. GLOBE is Part B-only and narrowed, with little effect on a Part D/oral-heavy mix.

  Unwind

  Tirzepatide US script share falling >5pts to Novo or an oral entrant over two quarters; a retatrutide Ph3 safety or durability miss; IRA/MFP negotiation or a most-favoured-nation rule cutting US GLP-1 net price >25%.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 4; orforglipron launch scripts; retatrutide Ph3 readouts.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,320.00 base

  $1,550.00 bull — The orforglipron launch beats, retatrutide data impress, and capacity lets supply meet demand for all three.

  $900.00 bear — A most-favoured-nation extension to Part D cuts GLP-1 net price sharply while Novo's oral Wegovy takes share.

• VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticalsbiology

  hold6.02%80
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Anchor. The CF monopoly (Trikafta/Alyftrek) is a self-funding cash engine: 86.2% GM, 38.2% OM, 21.3% FCF margin, 26.7% ROIC, net cash, share count -1.7%, patents into the late 2030s. The non-CF leg is building: inaxaplin Ph2b -42.7% UACR, Casgevy, suzetrigine. Oral small-molecule mix limits GLOBE exposure.

  Unwind

  The CF franchise eroding faster than non-CF revenue replaces it; the Crinetics integration destroying value; suzetrigine commercial failure; an inaxaplin pivotal miss.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 3; suzetrigine script trajectory; inaxaplin pivotal progress.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $570.00 base

  $650.00 bull — Suzetrigine scales in acute pain, inaxaplin de-risks, and non-CF becomes a second engine.

  $420.00 bear — Suzetrigine stalls commercially, the Crinetics deal dilutes returns, and the multiple compresses on CF-only growth.

• NEMNewmontenergy

  hold5.47%84
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Tail-risk hedge and anchor: the largest gold producer, with tier-1 long-life assets. 54.4% OM, 36.3% FCF margin, 28.5% ROIC, net cash, share count -5.3% YoY; record Q2 FCF of $2.2B funds dividends and buybacks. Wind: central-bank gold buying, the oil-shock and higher-for-longer stagflation tail, and Hormuz escalation.

  Unwind

  Cost overruns breaking FCF or the dividend (AISC toward ~$1,680/oz with the 13% production decline is the live version); a gold rollover on genuine disinflation plus Fed cuts; a value-destroying acquisition.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Oct 22: AISC and production guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $130.00 base

  $160.00 bull — Gold holds above $4,000 on the Hormuz and fiscal tail, AISC stabilises, and buybacks accelerate.

  $85.00 bear — A Hormuz reopening plus a disinflation print knock gold down 20% while AISC creeps up.

• GEVGE Vernovaenergy

  hold3.71%63
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Gas-turbine and grid franchise with pricing power: heavy-duty turbines sold out through 2030, 10-20% price realisation, backlog pulled forward toward ~$200B, 32.7% ROIC, 39.8% FCF margin, net cash. Wind: Norges NEW +3.42M sh, Temasek +372%, Coatue, Tiger, KIC, Fidelity accumulating; Terafab Texas grid demand; first US BWRX-300 construction permit.

  Unwind

  Gas-turbine backlog cancellations or a NAMED hyperscaler power-capex cut; wind losses widening enough to consume gas-segment profit; order intake falling below revenue for two quarters.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Oct 21-28: orders, slot reservations, price realisation.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,100.00 base

  $1,300.00 bull — Q3 orders beat, 2028-30 slots sell at higher prices, and the grid segment's margin inflects.

  $740.00 bear — A hyperscaler power-capex pause plus a wind charge cut the multiple 25%.

• ARGXargenxbiology

  trim1.79%-2.00pp69
  flow softeningconf

  Funder

  The Vyvgart/Hytrulo FcRn franchise (gMG, CIDP) is first-mover and commercial-stage: Q2 revenue $1.54B beat, ~60% YoY growth, net cash, and FB102 hit its Ph2 celiac endpoint (Oct 8). Wind: Fidelity +5.23M sh, T. Rowe +2.68M sh. Trimmed because the Sjögren's Ph3 (UNITY) was halted for futility on Oct 8, which hit my own named unwind condition. The core franchise stays.

  Unwind

  Vyvgart revenue growth <25% YoY; the myositis Ph3 failing (the second expansion miss would end the label-expansion thesis); J&J nipocalimab or UCB taking material gMG share; a dilutive raise; GLOBE Part B rebates hitting IV Vyvgart materially.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings Oct 22 (core Vyvgart demand); myositis Ph3 readout; FB102 Ph3 design.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $950.00 base

  $1,150.00 bull — Oct 22 shows the core still growing ~50%, myositis reads out positive, and FB102 opens a celiac franchise.

  $640.00 bear — Myositis also fails, nipocalimab takes gMG share, and Part B rebate pressure caps IV pricing.

• MUMicron Technologycompute

  hold3.91%75
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Anchor. The only US-domiciled leading-edge DRAM/HBM franchise: 72.5% GM, 65.4% OM, 60.8% ROIC, net cash, record revenue, and a three-player HBM oligopoly under Strategic Customer Agreements. Wind: Norges NEW $17.5B (+15.18M sh), Coatue +1794%, KIC, Temasek, Mubadala, and a 4-fund cluster open.

  Unwind

  Erosion of the Strategic Customer Agreement book or customer deposits returned; HBM oversupply as 2027 Samsung/SK capacity lands; CXMT converting DRAM share at the leading edge.

  Catalyst

  FQ1 earnings ~late Dec; HBM4 qualification at NVDA; DRAM contract price prints.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,100.00 base

  $1,350.00 bull — HBM4 sells out for 2027 under SCAs, DRAM contract prices keep rising, and FCF converts as capex peaks.

  $620.00 bear — Samsung/SK 2027 HBM capacity floods supply and AI infrastructure funding tightens (e.g. Firmus IPO pulled), so pricing rolls over.

• NVDANVIDIAcompute

  hold3.54%69
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  AI-accelerator franchise with the CUDA moat: 74.2% GM, 74.1% ROIC, net cash, rev +138% YoY, a $235B buyback authorisation, share count -1.3%. Wind: Norges NEW $65.2B, Temasek +3554%, KIC/Tiger/Coatue adds.

  Unwind

  Data-center revenue growth <20% YoY for two consecutive quarters; GM below the 71-72% floor on memory cost; the receivables build (45→60 DSO) persisting while capex customers lean on debt.

  Catalyst

  FQ3 earnings ~Nov 25; Rubin ramp; hyperscaler Q3 capex guides late Oct.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $260.00 base

  $310.00 bull — Rubin ramps on time, hyperscaler 2027 capex lands near $1T, and GM holds 73%+.

  $160.00 bear — Capex digestion plus custom ASIC share gains slow data-center growth below 20% and the multiple compresses.

• ASMLASML Holdingcompute

  hold2.60%68
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  EUV/High-NA monopoly, the irreplaceable tool at 2nm: multi-year backlog, ~50% GM, an installed-base service annuity (+31.8% YoY). Wind: weekly buybacks executing (€428M Sep 14-18), TSMC/Intel/Samsung 2nm and A14 EUV orders, and Terafab fab demand.

  Unwind

  Book-to-bill <0.7 for three consecutive quarters; Dutch/US export tightening removing a material share of the orderbook (China 20-33% of revenue); High-NA adoption slipping past 2028.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings mid-Oct: bookings and 2027 guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $1,950.00 base

  $2,300.00 bull — Q3 bookings jump on 2nm/A14 and memory EUV, High-NA adoption accelerates, and 2027 is guided up.

  $1,350.00 bear — China export tightening plus a WFE digestion year cut 2027 revenue and bookings fall under 0.7.

• AVGOBroadcomcompute

  hold2.37%73
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Custom-silicon ASIC leader (~60-70% share) plus VMware infrastructure-software lock-in: 68.6% GM, 47.3% OM, 35.2% FCF margin, 13x interest cover, $7B+ buyback. Wind: AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B, Norges NEW $24.9B, Temasek, KIC, Coatue. The NEAM exit is a small non-core holder, not a funder break.

  Unwind

  AI custom-chip revenue stalling below a ~$25B run-rate; hyperscalers in-sourcing and displacing the ASIC franchise across multiple named accounts; VMware churn spiking.

  Catalyst

  FQ4 earnings ~Dec 10: AI revenue guide, new XPU customer ramps.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $410.00 base

  $480.00 bull — New XPU customers ramp, AI revenue guide steps up, and VMware cash funds buybacks.

  $270.00 bear — A key hyperscaler in-sources its ASIC and VMware renewals churn, compressing growth.

• ANETArista Networkscompute

  hold2.71%72
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Hyperscaler-networking franchise and share-gainer since 2004: 63.5% GM, 43.9% OM, 37.9% FCF margin, net cash, single-image EOS. Wind: AI-fabric customers up from 4-5 to 100+, $9.7B purchase commitments, Norges +12.25M sh, Fidelity, T. Rowe, Citadel +61.6%.

  Unwind

  Microsoft+Meta >50% of revenue while revenue decelerates; Spectrum-X or whitebox displacing EOS in a NAMED hyperscaler footprint; GM breaking below 60%; purchase commitments unwinding.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 4: AI backend revenue and 2027 guide.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $230.00 base

  $280.00 bull — Scale-up Ethernet wins and enterprise AI broaden revenue past 40% growth.

  $150.00 bear — At a ~53x forward multiple, any guide miss or Spectrum-X win de-rates it 30%.

• AEISAdvanced Energy Industriescompute

  hold2.41%67
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Starter. 45-year incumbent in precision RF/DC plasma power, designed into etch and deposition recipes at the WFE OEMs, so requalifying the supply means requalifying the recipe. Wind: Q2 rev +30% to $574M, FY26 guide raised, AI datacenter power demand, Terafab and 2nm WFE spend. Scale-in: OM >15% plus two quarters of data-center share gains. Kill: the criteria below.

  Unwind

  GM sustained below 36% on MKS/Comet/Delta price competition; semiconductor-segment revenue declining for two consecutive quarters; data-center power share loss at a named hyperscaler.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Nov 2: semi segment and data-center power trajectory.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $320.00 base

  $380.00 bull — WFE recovers in 2027 on 2nm/HBM, data-center power wins scale, and OM moves toward 18%.

  $210.00 bear — A WFE digestion year plus price competition push GM below 36%.

• BEAMBeam Therapeuticsbiology

  hold1.23%39
  flow steadyconf

  Funder

  Growth-starter sleeve, sized small by design. Base-editing origin platform (David Liu/Broad): single-base correction without double-strand breaks. ~$1.2B cash funds BEAM-302 (AATD) into 2028. Wind: ARK +10.23M sh, Fidelity +12.61M, T. Rowe, and FDA feedback supportive of an accelerated pathway.

  Unwind

  A hepatotoxicity or off-target signal in BEAM-302; a discounted equity raise; cash runway breaking before AATD proof; FDA walking back the accelerated pathway.

  Catalyst

  BEAM-302 AATD dose-escalation data update; Q3 cash runway disclosure ~Nov 3.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $30.00 base

  $48.00 bull — BEAM-302 shows durable AAT correction at a higher dose and the FDA confirms the accelerated path.

  $12.00 bear — A safety signal or a discounted raise breaks the runway before proof.

• BKNGBooking Holdingsgeneral

  hold2.50%73
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Dominant two-sided travel marketplace (39.5% OTA share vs Expedia 21.8%, 29M+ listings) on 33.1% OM and 26.9% FCF margin, 0.4x ND/EBITDA, with twenty years of returning essentially all FCF via buybacks; Genius drives ~50% of room nights direct. Wind: Norges +12.43M sh, Temasek +5228%, KIC, T. Rowe, Citadel +85%.

  Unwind

  Take-rate falling >50bp YoY for two consecutive quarters (AI-agent or Google disintermediation showing up in the numbers, not the headlines); room-night growth below 4% for two quarters; Temasek trimming ≥25%.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings Nov 3: room nights, take rate, and any Meta Muse/agent impact.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $185.00 base

  $215.00 bull — Nov 3 shows no agent leakage, room nights grow 7%+, and buybacks absorb the fear discount.

  $125.00 bear — Agentic booking via Meta/Expedia Muse starts eroding take rate and direct mix.

• CMECME Groupfoundation

  open3.50%+3.50pp68
  flow acceleratingconf

  Funder

  Foundation. Toll booth on global risk transfer: ~90% share of US Treasury futures with a CCP clearing network effect. 66.3% GM, 42.7% FCF margin, D/E 0.36, 16 years of dividend growth, four years of record revenue. Wind: record Sept ADV 31.8M (+22% YoY); Norges +4.82M sh, Baupost, Viking and KIC holders; higher-for-longer rate and oil volatility drive hedging volume.

  Unwind

  Red-team answer: FMX has been live since 2024 without meaningful Treasury share, and open interest liquidity plus BrokerTec cross-margining protect it. Normalising volatility is the base case, not a break. Exit if FMX takes >5% of Treasury futures ADV for two quarters, or ADV falls YoY two quarters running with revenue per contract compressing.

  Catalyst

  Q3 earnings ~Oct 22 (record ADV quarter); monthly ADV prints; FMX share data.

  Scenarios · 12mo targets

  $315.00 base

  $350.00 bull — Higher-for-longer and oil volatility keep ADV at records, international and retail grow, and the variable dividend rises.

  $240.00 bear — Volatility collapses on a Hormuz reopening, FMX wins mid-single-digit Treasury share, and EPS stalls off the record base.

Warnings

• live_sizing: 1 ticket(s) re-expressed against the executed ledger (§6.6)

Lock refusals and overrides

The 30-day lock refused nothing and nothing overrode it this run.

Cost breakdown

Per-call cost computed from the published list price of the model that answered. Cache-read tokens billed at 10% of input. See Cost & ROI for the rolling 30-day ledger.